Investment Rating - The investment rating for the financial industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [3][22]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes a focus on risk aversion and suggests prioritizing companies in the financial sector with relatively high dividend yields amidst declining market risk appetite [4][18]. - The report anticipates that the trade war will inevitably impact China's economy, but the long-term outlook remains positive due to previous risk mitigation efforts and ample policy space [6][8]. Summary by Sections Banking Sector - The report suggests that state-owned banks, such as Industrial and Agricultural Bank, have stronger risk aversion attributes and are likely to yield excess returns in the short term due to their better positioning amidst trade tensions [4][17]. - China Merchants Bank is highlighted for its solid customer base and governance, making it a stable investment with attractive dividend yields post-correction [4][8]. - The report indicates that after the short-term risk aversion sentiment dissipates, attention should shift to the potential benefits from counter-cyclical policies, particularly for city commercial banks and state-owned banks with significant infrastructure exposure [4][8]. Insurance Sector - The insurance sector is advised to focus on companies with robust fundamentals and defensive attributes, such as China Pacific Insurance and China Property & Casualty Insurance, due to the recent decline in valuations [5][18]. - The report projects a premium growth rate of approximately 5% to 6% year-on-year by 2025, with a corresponding NBV growth rate of 25% [5][18]. - The demand for long-term bonds and high-dividend assets is expected to remain strong, supporting the asset allocation needs of insurance companies [5][18]. Securities and Comprehensive Finance - The report notes that the securities industry has increasingly emphasized balanced asset allocation between stocks and bonds, with an average bond asset allocation of 62.3% of total financial assets among 23 listed brokerages [14][18]. - Given the significant market volatility, bond assets may help mitigate potential declines in investment returns [14][18]. - The report highlights the potential for multi-financial companies with high dividend yields to achieve excess returns in the current market environment [17][18].
金融行业快评:避险为先,优选金融
Guoxin Securities·2025-04-07 12:15