关税担忧带来基本金属价格大幅波动，等待风暴后的机会

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [2][4]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the recent tariff concerns have led to significant fluctuations in base metal prices, with a general decline observed. However, the long-term supply-demand dynamics suggest limited further downside for prices, indicating potential investment opportunities, particularly in rigid supply varieties like aluminum and copper [4][5]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The report notes that the A-share market has seen an overall decline, with the non-ferrous metal sector underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index. The non-ferrous metal index fell by 2.86%, lagging behind the index by 2.59 percentage points [16][21]. - Most base metal prices have experienced significant declines, with LME copper, aluminum, lead, and zinc dropping by 4.4%, 3.9%, 3.5%, and 5% respectively [23][24]. Macroeconomic Factors - The global manufacturing PMI for March was reported at 50.3, indicating a slight decline of 0.3 from the previous month, while the Chinese manufacturing PMI stood at 50.5, showing resilience [51][32]. - The European economy shows signs of recovery, with the Eurozone manufacturing PMI rising to 48.6 and the services PMI at 51 [45]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - For electrolytic aluminum, the industry has seen a slight increase in operating capacity, with production rising to 4,380.50 million tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous week. The current production is 84.01 tons, reflecting a 0.02% increase [6][52]. - The report indicates that aluminum inventories are decreasing, with domestic aluminum ingot inventory at 850,000 tons, down by 53,000 tons [6][52]. Profitability and Cost Analysis - The industry maintains a profit margin above 3,000 yuan per ton, with the current cash cost at 17,272 yuan per ton and total cost at 18,482 yuan per ton. The immediate profit per ton is reported at 3,417 yuan [6][52]. - The report also notes that the price of alumina has decreased, with expectations of continued downward pressure on prices due to a supply surplus [7][8]. Specific Metal Insights - For copper, the report highlights ongoing conflicts in mining and smelting, leading to a shift towards inventory accumulation globally. Domestic copper inventory stands at 409,200 tons, reflecting a decrease of 4.26% year-on-year [10][9]. - Zinc processing fees have met expectations, with domestic inventories significantly reduced, indicating a tightening supply situation [11]. Conclusion - The overall sentiment in the report suggests a cautious optimism for the non-ferrous metal sector, with potential investment opportunities arising from the current market dynamics and supply-demand balance [4][5].