Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall futures market is affected by trade conflicts, with most domestic futures main contracts showing a downward trend. The market is worried about the global economy, and the prices of commodities such as crude oil, copper, and silver have generally declined. Different varieties have different trends based on their own supply - demand fundamentals [3][5][7] - Urea is less affected by the macro - environment, with demand weakening month - on - month, and supply and inventory providing support, and the market is expected to fluctuate weakly [3] - Crude oil prices are weakening due to trade war concerns and OPEC +'s decision to increase production, and are expected to fluctuate downward [5] - Copper prices are under pressure due to trade war concerns, but the supply is expected to be tight, and it is expected to return to the supply - demand fundamentals after the digestion of macro - negative sentiment [10] - The price of lithium carbonate is expected to run weakly due to weak supply - demand fundamentals and high inventory [11][13] - The price of asphalt is expected to weaken and fluctuate downward due to trade war concerns and weak demand, but the cracking spread is expected to strengthen [14] - PP and plastic are expected to fluctuate downward due to factors such as trade war and cost pressure, and it is recommended to go long on PP and short on LL [16][18] - PVC is under short - term downward pressure due to factors such as trade war, high inventory, and weak demand [19] - Iron ore is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to hold the 5 - 9 positive spread [20] - Rebar and hot - rolled coils are expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term, and attention should be paid to changes in export demand and domestic macro - policies [22] - Coking coal is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term due to limited changes in fundamentals and low valuation [23] Summary by Commodity Urea - Affected by domestic fundamentals, the demand side is weakening month - on - month, and supply and inventory support the market. The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 1780 - 1900 yuan/ton [3] Crude Oil - Trump's tariff policy and OPEC +'s production increase decision lead to weakening prices, with a downward - trending and fluctuating market [4][5] Copper - Affected by the trade war, the price is under pressure. The supply is expected to be tight, and it is expected to return to the supply - demand fundamentals after the digestion of macro - negative sentiment [10] Lithium Carbonate - Weak supply - demand fundamentals and high inventory lead to a weak price trend, and it is recommended to wait and see [11][13] Asphalt - Supply contraction, weak demand, and trade war concerns lead to a downward - trending market, but the cracking spread is expected to strengthen [14] PP - Affected by trade war and cost pressure, it is expected to fluctuate downward, and it is recommended to go long on PP and short on LL [16] Plastic - Affected by trade war, cost pressure, and the end of the peak season, it is expected to fluctuate downward, and it is recommended to go long on PP and short on LL and short the 05 basis [17][18] PVC - Affected by trade war, high inventory, and weak demand, it is under short - term downward pressure [19] Iron Ore - Affected by trade uncertainty, it is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to hold the 5 - 9 positive spread [20] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - Affected by the trade war, the market is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term, and attention should be paid to changes in export demand and domestic macro - policies [22] Coking Coal - Affected by trade war, it is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term due to limited changes in fundamentals and low valuation [23]
冠通每日交易策略-2025-04-07
Guan Tong Qi Huo·2025-04-07 13:09