黑色金属日报-2025-04-07

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★☆☆ [1] - Hot Rolled Coil: ★☆★ [1] - Iron Ore: ★☆★ [1] - Coke: ★☆★ [1] - Coking Coal: ★☆★ [1] - Manganese Silicon: ★★☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★★☆ [1] Core Views - The short - term trend of steel, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon is weak due to factors such as trade frictions, tariff policies, and limited improvement in demand. Attention should be paid to the intensity of peak - season demand, domestic stimulus policies, and the warming up of real - estate sales [1][2][3][4][5][6] Summary by Related Categories Steel - Thread: Surface demand recovery slows, production stabilizes, inventory slowly decreases but remains low. Hot - rolled coil supply and demand decline, inventory drops, and blast furnace复产 slows. The manufacturing and steel export are impacted by US tariffs, and the domestic demand hedging needs to be strengthened. The short - term disk is weak and volatile, and attention should be paid to peak - season demand and domestic policies [1] Iron Ore - Affected by the decline of the overseas market during the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, the domestic disk opened sharply lower. Global shipments decreased and were lower than last year. Port inventory decreased slightly and still had room to decline. The demand improvement in the peak season was limited, and the iron - water复产 slowed. The short - term trend is weak, and attention should be paid to domestic stimulus policies [2] Coke - The price rebounded after falling. It follows the steel trend due to tariff policies. The first round of price increases was partially implemented. Coke production decreased slightly, and inventory increased slightly and remained high. It is recommended to short on rebounds [3] Coking Coal - The price rebounded after opening low, following the steel trend. Coal mine production decreased, and the number of shut - down mines was 16. Spot auction volume increased, and some coal prices were slightly boosted. Overall inventory decreased slightly, and downstream did not have large - scale restocking. It is recommended to short on rebounds [4] Manganese Silicon - The price rebounded after opening low, following the steel trend. Tianjin Port inventory decreased, and manganese ore prices declined. Supply decreased slightly, and inventory increased significantly. It is recommended to short on rebounds [5] Ferrosilicon - The price rebounded after opening low, following the steel trend. The market has expectations for carbon - emission policies but with little actual impact. Demand decreased marginally, supply decreased slightly, and inventory decreased slightly. It is recommended to short on rebounds [6]