资产配置日报：大风大浪大鱼-2025-04-07

Core Insights - The report highlights significant declines in domestic equity markets, with major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 dropping by 7.34% and 7.05% respectively, reflecting a broader trend of market volatility influenced by tariff policies and external economic pressures [1][2][6] - The bond market has shown a strong performance as a safe-haven asset, with yields on 10-year and 30-year government bonds decreasing by 7.8 basis points and 8.3 basis points, respectively, indicating a flight to safety amid market turmoil [2][3][4] Domestic Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3096.58, down 245.43 points, representing a decline of 7.34% [1] - The CSI 300 Index fell to 3589.44, down 272.06 points, a decrease of 7.05% [1] - The ChiNext Index and the Hang Seng Tech Index experienced even steeper declines, with drops of 12.50% and 17.16% respectively [2][6] Bond Market Analysis - The report notes a significant drop in yields for long-term government bonds, with the 10-year and 30-year bond yields reaching historical lows of 1.64% and 1.83% [2][4] - The central bank's actions, including a net withdrawal of 151.7 billion yuan through reverse repos, have contributed to a tightening of liquidity, impacting short-term borrowing costs [4] Commodity Market Insights - Gold prices initially fell to 2975 USD/oz before rebounding to 3054 USD/oz, indicating volatility in precious metals as investors seek liquidity [3] - Industrial metals and other commodities faced declines due to tariff impacts, with copper and rebar prices dropping by 7.01% and 2.59% respectively [3] Sector Performance - The report identifies public utilities as a sector that meets the criteria for being an oversold industry, with 24.63% of stocks falling below their pre-September 24 closing prices [8][11] - Other sectors such as environmental protection, non-bank financials, food and beverage, and telecommunications also show potential for recovery based on their performance metrics [8][11] Market Outlook - Despite the current market downturn, the report suggests that the underlying logic of "policy + technology" driving the market since September 24 remains intact, indicating potential for a rebound [6][8] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring tariff impacts and earnings announcements as key factors influencing market volatility in April [7][8]