肉牛行业投资框架看好2025年肉牛大周期反转

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the beef cattle industry [1] Core Insights - The beef cattle industry in China is expected to experience a significant cycle reversal in 2025, driven by supply adjustments and import controls [6] - The domestic beef market has faced challenges due to low-priced imports, leading to a decline in local beef prices from 2023 to 2024 [3][4] - The supply of beef cattle is anticipated to clear significantly, potentially mirroring the 2019 pig cycle, as the industry is currently in a prolonged state of loss [5][6] Overview: Supply and Demand Analysis - China is the largest beef producer and consumer globally, with a production share of 13% and a consumption share of 19% in 2024 [14] - The domestic beef production is projected to be 7.8 million tons in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 1.25% over the past decade [14] - The beef cattle supply adjustment is notably slower compared to other livestock, with a typical cycle from breeding to market taking around two years [10] Import Outlook - Future beef imports are likely to decrease in volume but increase in price due to domestic supply constraints and international market dynamics [4] - The U.S. is expected to see a reduction in beef cattle inventory, which will support higher local beef prices [4][6] Domestic Supply Outlook - The domestic beef cattle farming structure is highly fragmented, with a significant number of small-scale farmers, leading to inefficiencies [20][54] - The industry is currently experiencing deep losses, with reports indicating a loss of approximately 1,600 yuan per head by late 2024 [22] Conclusion - The report is optimistic about a reversal in the beef cattle cycle starting in 2025, with potential peak prices exceeding 60 yuan/kg, leading to historically high profits for farmers [6]