美国对等关税超预期，黄金配置战略性提升

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the precious metals industry, particularly focusing on gold assets due to the current economic conditions [2][7]. Core Insights - The report highlights that during economic recessions, gold assets demonstrate significant comparative advantages in both win rates and returns. Historical data shows that gold's median return during past recessions was 6%, outperforming other assets such as U.S. Treasuries and the S&P 500 by 5, 8, 18, and 33 percentage points respectively [1]. - The recent implementation of unexpected tariffs by the U.S. has heightened recession expectations, leading to a notable decline in global equity assets and commodities. This has resulted in increased allocations to gold by global ETF funds, with holdings rising from 3,219 tons at the end of 2024 to 3,353 tons by February 2025, marking an increase of 134 tons [5][7]. - The report anticipates that the ongoing trade tensions and potential global trade wars will further encourage central banks worldwide to increase their gold reserves, supporting the upward trend in gold prices [5][7]. Summary by Sections Economic Context - The U.S. has implemented a minimum baseline tariff of 10% on trade partners, with additional tariffs reaching as high as 46% on certain countries, leading to an expected GDP impact of approximately 1.6 percentage points [5]. - The market's response to these tariffs has been a shift towards recession expectations, with increased forecasts for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which is expected to benefit gold investments [5][7]. Gold Market Dynamics - The report notes that gold prices have stabilized above $3,000 per ounce, with expectations for continued upward momentum. If prices remain above this threshold, the earnings potential for gold companies is likely to increase significantly [7]. - The A-share gold sector has shown resilience during recession periods, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 9%, with a 100% success rate in generating excess returns [1][7]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on specific gold companies such as Zijin Mining, Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, and others, as they are positioned to benefit from the anticipated rise in gold prices and the strategic shift towards gold asset allocation [7].