Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The report provides daily insights on the feed and aquaculture industry, covering various products such as live pigs, eggs, oils, soybean meal, and corn. It analyzes the current market situation, supply - demand dynamics, and price trends of each product, and offers corresponding trading strategies [1][2][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Live Pigs - Spot Price: On April 8, the spot prices in Liaoning, Henan, Sichuan, and Guangdong were stable. The price in Liaoning was 14.1 - 14.4 yuan/kg, in Henan 14.3 - 15 yuan/kg, in Sichuan 14.2 - 14.6 yuan/kg, and in Guangdong 15.1 - 15.6 yuan/kg [1]. - Market Analysis: China's 34% counter - tariff on US imports from April 10 has limited direct impact on the pork market as the domestic pork import accounts for only about 5% and the US share is less than 1%. Currently, the industry still has breeding profits. In the short - term, large - scale farms control the weight of pigs for sale, and the low - price entry of secondary fattening and low slaughter inventory support the price. However, the price is under pressure due to cautious secondary fattening after price increases, increased large - pig sales, and limited terminal consumption. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply from April to September is expected to increase, and the price may fall back to the cost level. The forward price is also under pressure [1]. - Trading Strategy: The futures are at a discount, reflecting a weak expectation. The general direction is to go short on rebounds. For the 05 contract, pay attention to the pressure at 13,500 - 13,600; for the 07 contract, 13,600 - 13,800; and for the 09 contract, 14,300 - 14,500. Sell out - of - the - money call options on the 07 and 09 contracts at high prices [1]. Eggs - Spot Price: On April 8, the price in Shandong Dezhou was 3.05 yuan/jin, up 0.1 yuan/jin from the previous day, and in Beijing it was 3.25 yuan/jin, up 0.09 yuan/jin [2]. - Market Analysis: In April, the supply pressure is large due to the increasing number of old hens undergoing molting and newly - hatched chickens starting to lay eggs. The egg price is under pressure, but the increased culling of old hens and the digestion of inventory have marginally improved the supply - demand pattern. In the long - term, the high breeding profit from December 2024 to February 2025 led to high replenishment enthusiasm, resulting in more newly - laying hens in the second quarter. The supply increase trend in the second half of the year may be difficult to reverse [2]. - Trading Strategy: The 05 contract on the futures market has a slight premium over the spot. For non - holders, be cautious about shorting. The 08 and 09 contracts are considered bearish in general, but pay attention to the impact of feed costs and culling [2]. Oils - Futures Price Movement: On April 7, the US soybean oil May contract fell 1.14% to 45.20 cents/pound, and the Malaysian palm oil June contract fell 3.40% to 4,182 ringgit/ton. The domestic palm oil price fell 410 - 460 yuan/ton, soybean oil 150 - 250 yuan/ton, and rapeseed oil 250 - 280 yuan/ton [4]. - Palm Oil: Trump's tariff policy has increased the global economic recession expectation, dragging down the oil market. In Malaysia, the March export increased by 0.4 - 3.9% month - on - month, but the production increased by 5.10 - 9.48%. The inventory is expected to rise. After the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, Malaysian palm oil is expected to fluctuate weakly. In China, the supply - demand is in a tight balance in the short - term, but the price may decline in the long - term [5]. - Soybean Oil: Although the US may increase the biodiesel blending ratio, the overall fundamentals are bearish. After the mutual tariff imposition, the domestic import of US soybeans incurs heavy losses, and the South American supply pressure is large. The US soybean is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term. In China, the soybean and soybean oil inventories are decreasing, but the supply pressure will increase in the second quarter. The price may first fall and then rise in the long - term [6]. - Rapeseed Oil: The uncertainties in the relations between the US, Canada, and China have affected the Canadian rapeseed export. The domestic rapeseed oil inventory is high, but the supply pressure will ease after May. In the long - term, the rapeseed oil price is expected to stop falling and rebound [7]. - Trading Strategy: After the festival, domestic oils are expected to fluctuate weakly, with soybean oil and rapeseed oil relatively strong. In the second quarter, the overall oil price may decline, and then rebound in the third quarter. Temporarily observe the 05 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oils, and pay attention to the support levels. Close the spread - widening position of the 09 contract of rapeseed oil and soybean oil [8]. Soybean Meal - Futures and Spot Price: On April 7, the US soybean 05 contract rose 6 cents to 983 cents/bu. The domestic soybean meal spot price in the East China region was 3,120 yuan/ton, with a basis of 05 + 220 yuan/ton [8]. - Market Analysis: China's tariff policy on US imports has a limited direct impact on soybean meal before July, but it may push up the bottom price of the 05 and 07 contracts due to sentiment. The abundant supply from South America will limit the upward space. In the long - term, the tariff will increase the import cost and tighten the supply, driving up the domestic soybean meal price [8]. - Trading Strategy: Be cautious about going long on the 05 and 07 contracts. Go long on the 09 contract at low prices. Do a reverse spread on the 7 - 9 contract and a positive spread on the 9 - 1 contract. For spot enterprises, be cautious about arranging the basis from May to September, and price at low levels if there is an existing basis. Arrange the basis after September according to the crushing profit or use the 9 - 1 positive spread [8]. Corn - Spot Price: On April 7, the new corn purchase price at Jinzhou Port was 2,180 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 2,230 yuan/ton. The purchase price in Shandong Weifang Xingmao was 2,334 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [9]. - Market Analysis: In the short - term, there is still a selling demand from the grass - roots level, and the port inventory is high, putting pressure on the spot price. However, the market sentiment is bullish, and the downstream has replenishment demand. In the long - term, the corn production in the 24/25 season has decreased, and the import has continued to decline, but the supply is supplemented by substitutes, limiting the upward space [10]. - Trading Strategy: Generally, be bullish on the corn market. Look for opportunities to go long on the 05 contract on pullbacks, and pay attention to the 2,250 support level. Do positive spreads on the 5 - 9 and 5 - 7 contracts [10]. Today's Futures Market Overview - The report provides the closing prices, price changes, and other information of various futures and spot products such as CBOT soybeans, soybean meal, corn, soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, eggs, live pigs, etc. on the previous and the day before the previous trading days [11].
饲料养殖产业日报-2025-04-08
Chang Jiang Qi Huo·2025-04-08 01:43