Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - PVC is rated as bearish with a volatile and weak outlook [2] - Caustic soda is rated as cautiously bearish [3] - Rubber is rated as bearish [4][5] - Urea is rated with a focus on price correction risk due to a supply - demand situation and macro factors [6] - Methanol is rated with a focus on price correction risk due to supply - demand and macro factors [7][8] Group 2: Report's Core Views - The energy and chemical market is generally affected by factors such as trade conflicts, overseas recession expectations, and domestic policies. Different products have their own supply - demand characteristics, and most are under downward pressure, but there are also some potential positive factors [2][3][4] Group 3: Summary by Product PVC - On April 7, the PVC 05 contract closed at 4,929 yuan/ton (-140). In the long - term, demand is weak due to the real estate drag and export restrictions, supply has new investment plans and high inventory, so it's in a bearish position. In the short - term, it follows the macro - market and is volatile and weak. Attention should be paid to tariffs, US recession expectations, and domestic stimulus policies [2] Caustic Soda - On April 7, the SH05 contract closed at 2,477 yuan/ton (-24). The overall chlor - alkali chain is weak. Currently, profit is neutral, inventory is high, and the market sentiment is poor, but export orders may improve. Pay attention to delivery volume, inventory, alumina production, and future maintenance [3] Rubber - On April 7, the three major rubbers hit the daily limit down, with a decline of over 12% from last Thursday to April 7. Due to macro - deterioration and weak fundamentals, it's bearish. As of April 6, 2025, the inventory in Qingdao increased slightly. The domestic spot price decreased [4][5] Urea - On April 7, the urea contract fell 1.69% to 1,862 yuan/ton. Supply is abundant, demand from compound fertilizer enterprises decreased slightly, and it's in a seasonal de - stocking phase. Pay attention to the price correction risk affected by US tariffs [6] Methanol - On April 7, the methanol contract fell 3.77% to 2,376 yuan/ton. Supply is at a high level, cost has increased slightly, demand from methanol - to - olefins is stable but with profit losses and potential maintenance. Inventory is decreasing. Pay attention to the price correction risk affected by tariffs [7][8]
能源化工日报-2025-04-08
Chang Jiang Qi Huo·2025-04-08 01:43