宏源期货品种策略日报：油脂油料-2025-04-08

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Affected by the implementation of US tariffs and OPEC+ production increase, the international oil price continued to decline sharply, causing the cost - side support of PX to collapse. The PTA demand side was weak, and the market was bearish. Although the PTA supply was sufficient, it was in the process of de - stocking. The polyester bottle - chip market was also affected by trade frictions, with a bearish sentiment and the cost - pricing logic continuing to operate. It was expected that PX, PTA, and PR would operate weakly [2]. 3. Summary by Related Contents 3.1 Price Changes - Upstream Products: On April 7, 2025, the futures settlement prices of WTI and Brent crude oil decreased by 9.34% and 8.45% respectively compared to the previous values. The spot prices of naphtha, xylene, and PX also declined significantly, with the spot price of PX CFR China Main Port dropping by 12.40% [1]. - PTA: The closing and settlement prices of CZCE TA contracts all decreased, with the settlement price of the main contract dropping by 6.03%. The domestic spot price of PTA decreased by 1.22%, and the CCFEI price index of PTA decreased by 5.89% [1]. - PX: The closing and settlement prices of CZCE PX contracts decreased, with the settlement price of the main contract dropping by 7.01%. The domestic spot price of PX decreased by 5.46% [1]. - PR: The closing and settlement prices of CZCE PR contracts decreased, with the settlement price of the main contract dropping by 6.03%. The market prices of polyester bottle - chips in the East and South China markets decreased by 5.72% and 4.29% respectively [1]. - Downstream Products: The CCFEI price indices of various polyester products such as polyester filament and short - fiber all decreased, with the CCFEI price index of polyester FDY68D dropping by 4.08% [2]. 3.2 Spread Changes - The PXN spread decreased by 6.81% to 208.75 dollars/ton, and the PX - MX spread decreased by 13.12% to 96 dollars/ton. The near - far month spread of PTA increased by 6.00% to - 46 yuan/ton, and the basis of PTA decreased by 33 yuan/ton to 0 yuan/ton. The basis of PX increased by 27 yuan/ton to 71 yuan/ton. The basis of PR in the East China market decreased by 3 yuan/ton to 15 yuan/ton, and in the South China market, it increased by 82 yuan/ton to 130 yuan/ton [1]. 3.3 Operating Conditions - The PX operating rate remained unchanged at 73.35%. The PTA factory load rate decreased by 3.01% to 76.77%, the polyester factory load rate increased by 0.31% to 89.35%, the bottle - chip factory load rate increased by 2.31% to 75.47%, and the Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom load rate decreased by 0.42% to 66.76%. The sales - to - production ratios of polyester filament, short - fiber, and polyester chips all decreased, with the polyester short - fiber sales - to - production ratio dropping by 35 percentage points to 49% [1]. 3.4 Device Information - The 2.2 - million - ton PTA device in Northeast China and the 2.5 - million - ton PTA device in South China are planned to be overhauled soon, but the situation needs further attention [2]. 3.5 Trading Strategy - On the previous trading day, due to the impact of tariff policies, the 2505 contract of PTA closed at 4,550 yuan/ton, down 6.03%, with an intraday trading volume of 31,800 lots; the 2505 contract of PX closed at 6,392 yuan/ton, down 7.01%, with an intraday trading volume of 4,061 lots; the 2505 contract of PR closed at 5,670 yuan/ton, down 6.03%, with an intraday trading volume of 1,436 lots. It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will operate weakly (PX view score: - 2, PTA view score: - 2, PR view score: - 2) [2].