苯乙烯：短期不追空

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The short - term risks of styrene have been fully released, and it is not advisable to short in the short term [2] Summary by Directory Fundamental Tracking - For styrene futures contracts, prices of EB2505, EB2506, and EB2507 all decreased compared to the previous day, with changes of - 46, - 38, and - 36 respectively. The basis of EB decreased by 14, and the spreads between different contracts also decreased. The spot price of styrene in East China dropped by 60. The number of styrene warehouse receipts decreased by 2363, the trading volume decreased by 140089, and the open interest decreased by 330 [1] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of styrene is 0, indicating a neutral view. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, where - 2 is the most bearish and 2 is the most bullish [1] Spot News - The short - term risks of styrene have been fully released, and short - selling is not recommended in the short term [2] Market Analysis - The weak situation of pure benzene remains unresolved, with short - term downward drivers. Although the overseas gasoline blending has restarted, the overall valuation has been re - structured due to the rapid decline in oil prices, and the downward pressure on the absolute price in the overseas market has not been fully released. However, due to the marginal improvement in the supply - demand of pure benzene, bzn has rebounded rapidly and is expected to fluctuate around 200 in the short term. The domestic downstream demand is lackluster, and the trade war has added pressure to the export in the second quarter. In 2025, the downstream resilience of pure benzene is much weaker than in 2024. The downstream demand order is currently phenol > adipic acid > aniline > caprolactam. The growth of caprolactam, which was the strongest last year, has slowed down this year, with continuous price drops, inventory accumulation, and load reduction. The MDI market overseas still faces trade war pressure, with a rapid increase in inventory and obvious negative feedback from aniline. However, the recent operating rates and profits of adipic acid and phenol are relatively stronger [3] - The negative feedback of styrene has just begun. EPS has started to reduce production and prices to relieve inventory pressure. PS and ABS factories have not yet reduced production, and are expected to do so after the poor home appliance demand is transmitted to actual orders for hard plastics. In the short term, PS and ABS factories can still maintain high loads driven by profits. Although there is an expectation of significant inventory reduction for styrene in April, downstream raw material inventory is already quite sufficient. There is a possibility that styrene may follow the decline of pure benzene. Opportunities for compressing profits in the far - month contracts should be noted [3]