豆粕日报-2025-04-08

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings were provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Report - Bean Meal: Short - term upward trend. The Sino - US trade friction has escalated, and the frost in some soybean - producing areas in Argentina has led to a higher opening of the bean meal price. However, the impact of the tariff event on the domestic bean meal supply is limited, and it is treated as an event - driven bullish speculative market [1][2][3]. - Rapeseed Meal: Short - term rebound and consolidation. Affected by the bullish factors of the bean meal, the rapeseed meal opened higher and then declined. The fundamentals are weak, so be cautious when going long and manage positions and risks well [1][5][6]. - Palm Oil: Short - term downward adjustment. In April, the international palm oil supply and demand both increased, but the monthly trend is expected to weaken. The domestic market has low inventory and low imports. Although the near - month contracts are supported by high import costs and high basis, be cautious when short - selling [1][7][8]. - Cotton: Under pressure. The international market is affected by trade frictions and the risk of macro - economic recession. The domestic market has high inventory, and the export cost has increased due to tariff barriers. The overall price is under pressure, but there may be a small technical rebound [1][9][12]. - Red Dates: Weak operation. The market has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. The downstream market is in the off - season, and the arrival of fresh fruits has squeezed the market. It is expected to maintain a weak operation in the near future [1][13][14]. - Live Pigs: Short - term rebound. The market supply pressure is still large, but with the improvement of demand before the May Day holiday, beware of the basis convergence of contracts 5 and 7. Maintain a bearish overall view and pay attention to reverse spread opportunities [1][15][17]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Bean Meal - International Situation: Brazil's soybean production outlook is stable. Argentina may face insufficient rainfall in the next 15 days. The Sino - US trade friction has escalated, with the US imposing a 10% tariff on China and China counter - imposing a 10% tariff on US soybeans [1][3]. - Domestic Situation: This week, the inventory of soybeans and bean meal at domestic ports decreased. From April to June, the monthly average soybean import will exceed 10 million tons. The trade tariff event has limited impact on the domestic bean meal supply [1][3]. - Price Movement: Driven by the Sino - US trade friction and frost in Argentina, the bean meal price opened higher and then declined. The futures price (main contract daily closing) increased by 6.67%, and the national average spot price increased by 3.62% [1][2]. Rapeseed Meal - Inventory Situation: As of April 3, the rapeseed and rapeseed meal inventory of coastal oil mills decreased this week, but the short - term supply is generally sufficient [5]. - Policy Impact: China has imposed a 100% tariff on Canadian rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, but the actual bullish impact is limited as rapeseed is not included and there are many ways to deliver rapeseed meal [1][5]. - Price Movement: Affected by the bean meal, it opened higher and then declined. In a weak fundamental state, be cautious when going long [1][5]. Palm Oil - International Supply and Demand: In April, the international palm oil supply and demand both increased, but the marginal supply is increasing, and the monthly trend is expected to weaken [1][8]. - Domestic Market: The domestic palm oil has low commercial inventory and low imports. The spot price difference between soybean oil and palm oil is inverted, resulting in light spot trading. The near - month contracts are supported by high import costs and high basis [1][7][8]. - Price Movement: During the holiday, the decline in crude oil and US soybean oil prices led to a large decline in the palm oil price. It is a short - term adjustment market, and be cautious when short - selling [1][7][8]. Cotton - International Situation: The northern hemisphere's cotton sowing has begun, and the southern hemisphere's sowing has ended. The US cotton planting area is slightly lower than expected, and Pakistan's sowing progress is slow. India's cotton production is expected to decline by 3% in the 2025/26 season [10]. - Domestic Situation: The domestic industrial and commercial inventory is high and is gradually being destocked. New cotton has been sown, and there are no obvious negative warnings about soil moisture and weather. The export cost of downstream textile enterprises has increased due to tariff barriers [1][9][12]. - Price Movement: The Zhengzhou cotton main contract decreased by 3.25%. The overall price is under pressure, but there may be a small technical rebound [9][10][12]. Red Dates - Market Situation: The transaction price is firm, but the overall trading volume is low. The Xinjiang main - producing areas' jujube trees are still in the dormant stage, and the inventory of 36 sample points has decreased slightly. The market purchasing atmosphere is light [13][14]. - Price Movement: The main contract of red dates decreased by 0.28%. It is expected to maintain a weak operation in the near future [13][14]. Live Pigs - Supply Situation: The supply pressure in the live pig market continues to be released, with sufficient supply of standard pigs. The second - fattening link shows small - scale entry and flexible operation characteristics. The number of breeding sows increased slightly in February [15][16]. - Demand Situation: After the weather warms up, the holiday inventory digestion is completed, and the demand has increased slightly. The slaughtering start - up rate has rebounded, but the growth rate is slowing down. Pay attention to the improvement of demand before the May Day holiday [15][16]. - Price Movement: The main contract of live pigs increased by 0.42%. The supply pressure is still large in the medium term, but there may be a short - term rebound. Maintain a bearish view and pay attention to reverse spread opportunities [15][16][17].