尿素早评：宏观情绪仍将反复-2025-04-08

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report [1] 2. Report's Core View - The macro - negative impact brought by tariffs persists, and the market remains highly uncertain. Although the current fundamentals of urea are relatively healthy, it is recommended to avoid the short - term macro - negative sentiment and wait for low - buying opportunities. The short - term strategy is to wait and see (view score: 0) [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures and Spot Prices - Urea futures prices (closing prices) on April 7 compared to April 3: UR01 decreased from 1850 yuan/ton to 1816 yuan/ton, a decrease of 34 yuan/ton (-1.84%); UR05 (Shandong) decreased from 1894 yuan/ton to 1862 yuan/ton, a decrease of 32 yuan/ton (-1.69%); UR09 decreased from 1852 yuan/ton to 1820 yuan/ton, a decrease of 32 yuan/ton (-1.73%) [1] - Domestic spot prices (small - granular) on April 7 compared to April 3: Shanxi decreased from 1850 yuan/ton to 1810 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton (-2.16%); Henan decreased from 1970 yuan/ton to 1930 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton (-2.03%); Hebei decreased from 1930 yuan/ton to 1900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton (-1.55%); Northeast remained unchanged at 1950 yuan/ton; Jiangsu decreased from 1970 yuan/ton to 1950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton (-1.02%) [1] 3.2 Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR increased from 56 yuan/ton to 68 yuan/ton, an increase of 12 yuan/ton [1] - The spread of 01 - 05 decreased from - 44 yuan/ton to - 46 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan/ton [1] 3.3 Upstream Costs - The prices of anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1180 yuan/ton and 850 yuan/ton respectively [1] 3.4 Downstream Prices - The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged at 3000 yuan/ton and 2580 yuan/ton respectively [1] - The prices of melamine in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged at 5770 yuan/ton and 5800 yuan/ton respectively [1] 3.5 Important Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2505 was 1848 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1879 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1820 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1862 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1858 yuan/ton. The position of 2505 was 200,558 lots [1] 3.6 Trading Strategy - Short - term strategy is to wait and see due to the macro - negative sentiment [1]