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Core Views - The short - term trend of soybean oil 2505 contract may face consolidation [1] - The short - term trend of soybean meal may fluctuate strongly [2] - The short - term futures price of corn will fluctuate within a range, and the idea of range operation should be maintained [3] - After the rapid decline of copper price to release risks, it needs a rest, and tactical defense should be carried out opportunistically [4] - The 2505 contract of lithium carbonate may fluctuate weakly, and short positions can be taken on rallies [5][6] - The market sentiment of steel is pessimistic, and it will fluctuate at a low level [7] - Due to the loose supply, coking coal and coke will have a weak rebound at a low level with limited space [8] - The short - term trend of iron ore 2505 is mainly fluctuating strongly, and traders are reminded to be cautious about investment risks [9] - After the holiday, the WTI main contract will have a sharp decline. Attention should be paid to the support level of INE crude oil at around 470 yuan/barrel [10] - Attention should be paid to the downstream start - up situation of Shanghai rubber, and the rubber will mainly fluctuate weakly [12] - In the short term, there is a lack of fundamental positive driving factors, and the futures price may fluctuate at a low level [13][14] - Yesterday, the 05 contract on the futures market fluctuated due to short - term macro - sentiment, but the overall supply - demand pattern remains unchanged. It is expected that the futures market will still fluctuate widely in the short term [15] Summary by Related Catalogs Spot Information - The price of first - grade soybean oil in Zhangjiagang Donghai Grain and Oil is 8270 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1] - The spot prices of 43 soybean meal in different regions are: Zhangjiagang 3130 yuan/ton (120), Tianjin 3290 yuan/ton (160), Rizhao 3220 yuan/ton (150), Dongguan 3020 yuan/ton (50) [2] - The mainstream purchase price of new corn in key deep - processing enterprises in the three northeastern provinces and Inner Mongolia is 2082 yuan/ton; the mainstream purchase price of new corn in key enterprises in North China and Huanghuai is 2281 yuan/ton; the purchase price in Jinzhou Port (15% water/volume weight 680 - 720) is 2130 - 2155 yuan/ton; the purchase price in Bayuquan (volume weight 680 - 730/15% water) is 2130 - 2155 yuan/ton [3] - The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper is 73820 - 75400, down 4540, with a premium of 100 - 200. The import copper ore index is - 26.4, down 2.26 [4] - The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) is 73400 (- 500) yuan/ton, the market price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%) is 73700 (- 400) yuan/ton, and the price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 1700 (- 100) yuan/ton [5] - The price of Shanghai rebar is 3170, the start - up rate in Tangshan is 83.13%, the social inventory is 590.95 million tons, and the inventory in steel mills is 207.12 million tons [7] - The price of main coking coal (clean coal, Mongolia 5) is 1200 yuan/ton; the price of metallurgical coke (quasi - first - grade) in Rizhao Port is 1330 yuan/ton; the port inventory of imported coking coal is 347.56 million tons; the port inventory of coke is 217.13 million tons [8] - The Platts index of iron ore is 102.95, the price of Qingdao PB (61.5) powder is 768, and the price of Australian iron ore powder with 62% Fe is 787 [9] - The spot prices of rubber are: domestic whole latex 16600 yuan/ton, Thai smoked three - piece 21600 yuan/ton, Vietnamese 3L standard rubber 17750 yuan/ton, and No. 20 rubber 16350 yuan/ton. The raw material prices in Ho Ai are: smoked sheet 72.59 Thai baht/kg, latex 67.5 Thai baht/kg, cup lump 60.95 Thai baht/kg, and raw rubber 68.99 Thai baht/kg [11] - The mainstream price of East China Type 5 PVC is 4800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton compared with the previous period; the mainstream price of ethylene - based PVC is 5100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton compared with the previous period; the price difference between ethylene - based and calcium - carbide - based PVC is 200 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton compared with the previous period [13] - The mainstream price of national heavy soda ash is 1467.19 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.37 yuan/ton compared with the previous period; among them, the mainstream price of heavy soda ash in East China is 1525 yuan/ton, in North China is 1575 yuan/ton, and in Central China is 1450 yuan/ton, all remaining unchanged compared with the previous period [15] Market Analysis - Soybean Oil: Currently, it is the sowing season of American soybeans and the harvesting and export season of South American soybeans. The harvesting of Brazilian soybeans is basically completed. The new crop in South America is likely to have a bumper harvest. In the medium term, the new supply and downstream demand of soybean oil may remain neutral, and the medium - term inventory may be sorted out [1] - Soybean Meal: The Sino - US tariff policy has caused market panic. The harvesting of South American soybeans is nearly over, and the Sino - US trade tariff war affects the export of American soybeans. Due to the delay of soybean arrival and shutdown for maintenance, the supply of soybean meal may be tight, but it is expected to turn loose when South American soybeans are concentrated on the market later. The terminal breeding demand is average, and downstream feed enterprises mainly replenish inventory on a rolling basis. The inventory of oil mills remains neutral. Due to the additional high - tariff imposition between China and the US during the Tomb - sweeping Festival, the short - term sentiment of soybean meal is strong [2] - Corn: In the international market, the expected planting area of American corn in 2025 is 95.326 million acres, reaching a 12 - year high, and the quarterly inventory is close to market expectations. In the domestic market, farmers have sold nearly 90% of their grain, and the import of corn and substitute grains has decreased significantly year - on - year, reducing the supply pressure. The downstream pig production capacity is recovering, and the feed consumption is expected to increase. However, there are still potential suppressing factors such as policy grain rotation and wheat substitution. Although the recent tariff event may affect the corn price, the price is still mainly dominated by domestic supply and demand [3] - Copper: The global "irrational" tariff shock has caused great fluctuations in overseas capital markets, leading to turmoil in overseas - priced non - ferrous metals and the stock market. The continuous status - quo maintenance of the Federal Reserve reflects the uncertainty. In 2025, the topic of ending the interest - rate cut path may be discussed. Domestically, policies are continuously strengthening, which is conducive to the recovery of market sentiment. From the industrial perspective, the raw material shock is still extremely severe, the mining problem has not been completely solved, the inventory accumulation factor has ended, and the copper price is in a stage of resonance, with intensified games between reality and expectations [4] - Lithium Carbonate: In terms of cost, the price of lithium ore remains unchanged compared with last week, and the inventory has increased. In terms of supply, the weekly start - up rate continues to increase, but the growth rate slows down, and the salt - lake end has started to resume production. If a large amount of low - cost lithium salt flows into the market, it may impact the price. In terms of demand, the terminal consumption in March has improved month - on - month, the power battery has maintained stable growth, and the production of cathode materials is stable, but the demand is still not enough to drive the price up. The weekly inventory continues to accumulate [5] - Steel: The fundamentals of steel have gradually improved, with the far - month contracts stronger than the near - month contracts, and the contango structure has weakened. The current valuation of steel is moderately low. In terms of cost and inventory, policies support the stabilization of the real estate industry. The apparent demand for steel has decreased year - on - year, the raw material price has fluctuated strongly this week, and the cost center of steel has increased dynamically. The social inventory and steel - mill inventory of steel are both decreasing, and the overall inventory level is low. In the short term, the macro - policy expectation dominates the futures market, and the fundamentals are gradually improving, showing a pattern of strong supply and demand [7] - Coking Coal and Coke: The supply is relatively loose, with the domestic production capacity steadily recovering, the capacity utilization rate of coking plants running smoothly, and the import of Mongolian coal remaining at a high level despite some disturbances. The demand is weak, as steel mills are reducing production, and there is still an expectation of a decline in hot - metal production. The independent coking enterprises maintain a low - inventory strategy for raw materials, and the overall inventory shows a slight accumulation trend. The average profit per ton of coke is running smoothly and is gradually approaching the break - even line [8] - Iron Ore: The market has both bullish and bearish factors. On the supply side, the shipment volume of the three major Australian mines in the first quarter increased by 8% year - on - year, the new mining area of Vale in Brazil was put into production ahead of schedule, and the global port inventory reached 145 million tons, a new high since 2023. On the demand side, the resumption of production of Chinese steel mills has slowed down. Although the traditional peak season came in March, the fund - arrival rate of downstream real - estate and infrastructure projects is low, the daily average hot - metal production remains at a low level of 2.25 million tons, steel mills are cautious about replenishing inventory, and the port desilting volume has declined for three consecutive weeks. Overseas demand is differentiated. The production increase of Indian steel mills supports part of the demand, but the substitution effect of Southeast Asian electric - arc furnaces is enhanced, reducing the dependence on iron ore. The market is worried about the contraction of long - process steel - making demand. However, the Fed's interest - rate cut signal in March has weakened the US dollar index, which supports the commodity price. Technically, the main contract of iron ore has strong support at the 110 - dollar mark, and if there is a marginal improvement in demand, the price may have a phased rebound [9] - Crude Oil: After the US announced "reciprocal tariffs" and China counter - imposed, the global capital market fell sharply, and crude oil was hit hard. The overseas market fell by more than 10% during the holiday. There is a risk of a limit - down opening of domestic crude oil and fuel oil after the holiday. OPEC+ decided to increase production in May, and the rare contraction of the US PMI data in February has raised concerns about demand. The crude oil price has fallen below the previous low support and entered a technical bear market. The US trade war and the delay of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks have increased uncertainty, and the demand in the second quarter may be severely dragged down by the trade war [10] - Rubber: The US "reciprocal tariffs" have a great impact on China's tire and automobile exports, causing the rubber price to fall across the board. The fundamental factors are secondary to the macro - sentiment. Fundamentally, the domestic whole - latex production is gradually resuming, and the Southeast Asian production areas are gradually stopping production. The supply in Thailand's southern region is still abundant. Currently, the global supply and demand of rubber are both loose, and the market is hyping up macro - narratives such as the trade war. The US automobile tariff may seriously suppress the global rubber demand [12] - PVC: In terms of supply, the start - up rate of PVC production enterprises last week was 80.02%, an increase of 0.21% month - on - month and 2.17% year - on - year. Among them, the start - up rate of calcium - carbide - based PVC was 82.40%, an increase of 0.51% month - on - month and 2.63% year - on - year, and the start - up rate of ethylene - based PVC was 73.77%, a decrease of 0.58% month - on - month and an increase of 1.55% year - on - year. In terms of demand, the domestic downstream product enterprises have not improved significantly, and the transactions are mainly for rigid demand. In terms of inventory, as of April 3, the social inventory of PVC has decreased by 3.41% month - on - month to 77.78 million tons, a decrease of 11.65% year - on - year. The inventory in East China and South China has also decreased. The futures price on April 7 was affected by extreme macro - fear factors, opening sharply lower and then rebounding, but still closing at a low level. The current supply - demand contradiction is still prominent, the inventory is relatively high, and the downstream demand is weak [13] - Soda Ash: In terms of supply, the overall start - up rate of soda ash last week was 85.09%, an increase of 2.72% month - on - month, and the output was 713,000 tons, an increase of 22,800 tons month - on - month, with a growth rate of 3.30%. The equipment maintenance has gradually recovered, and the output has increased. In terms of inventory, the manufacturer's inventory last week was 1.7014 million tons, an increase of 71,400 tons month - on - month, with a growth rate of 4.38%, and the inventory has significantly accumulated. The social inventory shows a downward trend. The demand is average, and the middle and downstream enterprises replenish inventory for rigid demand for low - price goods and still resist high - price goods. The tariff policy has limited impact on the soda - ash market, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate widely [15]
安粮期货生猪日报-2025-04-08
An Liang Qi Huo·2025-04-08 03:02