Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - Tariffs have a significant impact on various markets, leading to increased market volatility and uncertainty [6][9]. - Despite short - term challenges, the long - term prospects of Chinese equity assets remain positive [9]. - Gold's long - term value is still promising due to factors such as global recession risks and potential monetary policy easing [11]. - Different commodities have different short - term and long - term outlooks based on their supply - demand fundamentals and cost factors [13][15][17]. Summary by Category Bonds - Treasury Bonds: On the previous trading day, treasury bond futures closed up across the board. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts rose by 1.79%, 0.56%, 0.34%, and 0.13% respectively. The central bank conducted 935 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 301.7 billion yuan. Tariffs are significantly positive for treasury bond futures, but given the relatively low yield and the stable recovery of the Chinese economy, caution is advised. It is expected that the volatility will increase [5][6]. Stock Index Futures - Stock Index Futures: On the previous trading day, stock index futures fell across the board. The main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM fell by 10.00%, 8.20%, 10.00%, and 10.00% respectively. The central bank's move to increase holdings of ETFs is positive, but tariffs disrupt the economic recovery rhythm. It is expected that stock index futures will face pressure, but due to low valuations and policy hedging, short - term avoidance is considered, and opportunities to go long can be awaited [8][9]. Precious Metals - Precious Metals: On the previous trading day, the main contracts of gold and silver fell. China's gold reserves increased for the fifth consecutive month. After the implementation of tariffs, precious metals first rose and then fell. The long - term value of gold is still optimistic, and it is advisable to consider going long after the market stabilizes [11]. Base Metals - Steel Products (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil): On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fell sharply. Tariffs and weak demand in the real estate industry put pressure on prices, but macro - policies and peak - season expectations may provide support. The valuation is low, and investors can wait and see or engage in intraday trading with light positions [13]. - Iron Ore: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures fell. Although tariffs have an impact, the increase in iron ore demand and the decline in port inventory support prices. The valuation is relatively high, and investors can wait and see or engage in intraday trading with light positions [15]. - Coking Coal and Coke: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures fell. Tariffs affect the market, but the demand for coking coal is improving, and the fundamentals of coke are also showing signs of improvement. The medium - term weakness remains, and investors can wait and see or engage in intraday trading with light positions [18]. - Ferroalloys: On the previous trading day, manganese silicon and silicon iron fell. The supply of manganese ore may be disrupted, and the demand for ferroalloys is weak. The high inventory puts pressure on the market. For manganese silicon, deep out - of - the - money call options can be considered, and for silicon iron, short - sellers can consider exiting [20][21]. Energy - Crude Oil: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil hit the daily limit down. Trade frictions affect the trend of crude oil. It is expected that the price will be dragged down, but it will be supported at around $60. It is advisable to wait and see [22][23]. - Fuel Oil: On the previous trading day, fuel oil followed crude oil and rose first and then fell. The implementation of tariffs by the US will have a negative impact on the global shipping market and fuel oil [25][26]. Rubber - Synthetic Rubber: On the previous trading day, the main contract of synthetic rubber hit the daily limit down. Tariffs have a negative impact on the cost and demand. The raw material price is falling, and the processing is in a loss. It is expected to be weak in the short term [27]. - Natural Rubber: On the previous trading day, the main contracts of natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber hit the daily limit down. Tariffs impact the market from multiple aspects. In the short term, there is no upward drive, but there may be a technical rebound. In the long term, it depends on global trade policies and industrial chain restructuring [29]. Chemicals - PVC: On the previous trading day, the main contract of PVC fell. Tariffs have little impact on PVC imports and exports. The market is expected to continue the pattern of "weak reality vs. policy expectations". Spring maintenance and export resilience provide short - term support, but high inventory and weak real - estate demand are still pressures [31]. - Urea: On the previous trading day, the main contract of urea fell. The market is in a weak adjustment, with a loose supply - demand pattern. Cost support may limit the decline. It is expected to fluctuate before the start of summer fertilizer demand [34]. - PX: On the previous trading day, the main contract of PX hit the daily limit down. The decline in PX load and the increase in PTA start - up support the market, but the collapse of the cost of crude oil has a negative impact. It is expected to follow the cost and be weak in the short term [37]. - PTA: On the previous trading day, the main contract of PTA hit the daily limit down. The supply and demand fundamentals have little contradiction, but the sharp decline in crude oil prices may lead to a significant correction. Caution is advised [38]. - Ethylene Glycol: On the previous trading day, the main contract of ethylene glycol fell. High inventory and weak demand due to tariffs put pressure on the price. It is expected to be under pressure in the short term [40]. - Short - Fiber: On the previous trading day, the main contract of short - fiber hit the daily limit down. The demand at the terminal is improving limitedly, and the cost support is weak. It is expected to follow the cost in the short term [41]. - Bottle - Chip: On the previous trading day, the main contract of bottle - chip hit the daily limit down. The sharp decline in raw material prices and the lack of supply - demand drivers make it expected to follow the cost and be weak [43]. - Soda Ash: On the previous trading day, the main contract of soda ash fell. The supply is increasing, the inventory is rising, and the demand is weak. The market is mainly demand - driven in the short term [44]. - Glass: On the previous trading day, the main contract of glass fell. The production line is at a low level, and the market sentiment is weak due to tariffs [45]. - Caustic Soda: On the previous trading day, the main contract of caustic soda fell. The supply may have elasticity, but the price is difficult to be significantly supported due to inventory accumulation. It is expected to fluctuate [46]. - Paper Pulp: On the previous trading day, the main contract of paper pulp fell. The inventory is rising, and the downstream start - up is weak. The market may be weak and volatile in the short term due to tariff news [47]. - Lithium Carbonate: On the previous trading day, the main contract of lithium carbonate fell. The supply is increasing, the demand is weakening, and the inventory is rising. It is expected to be weak [48]. Agricultural Products - Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal: On the previous trading day, soybean meal rose, and soybean oil fell. The supply of soybeans is expected to be abundant, but tariffs may cause short - term over - reaction. For soybean meal, long - holders can consider taking profits, and for soybean oil, waiting and seeing is advisable [57]. - Palm Oil: On the previous trading day, palm oil fell. The inventory in Malaysia is expected to increase, and the import in China has decreased. It is advisable to wait and see [59]. - Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil: The impact of tariffs on rapeseed meal is greater than that on rapeseed oil. The supply of rapeseed meal in the near - term may be affected more. It is advisable to consider the opportunity to widen the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal [61]. - Cotton: On the previous trading day, domestic cotton fell. Tariffs disrupt the global economy, and the supply is sufficient while the demand is weakening. It is advisable to consider shorting after a rebound [64]. - Sugar: On the previous trading day, sugar fell. The Brazilian sugar - cane crushing progress is slow, and the Indian sugar production is lower than expected. In China, the supply pressure is not large. It is advisable to wait and see [67]. - Apple: On the previous trading day, apple futures oscillated. The cancellation of a delivery warehouse is positive, and the consumption is better than expected. With low inventory, the price is expected to be strong, and going long after a pull - back can be considered [70]. - Pig: On the previous trading day, the pig price was stable with minor adjustments. The supply is expected to increase slightly, and the demand is in the off - season. Short - term waiting and seeing is advisable, and opportunities to go short at high prices can be awaited after the short - term sentiment subsides [73]. - Egg: On the previous trading day, egg prices fell. The supply is increasing, and the demand is in the off - season. After the short - term market sentiment is released, opportunities can be observed [75]. - Corn: On the previous trading day, corn futures rose. The supply pressure still exists in the short term, but the demand is increasing slightly. If the market sentiment drives the price up significantly, out - of - the - money put options can be considered [78]. - Log: On the previous trading day, log futures fell. The supply pressure is increasing, and the inventory is relatively neutral. Attention should be paid to the risk of price decline if the reality is weaker than expected [80].
西南期货早间评论-2025-04-08
Xi Nan Qi Huo·2025-04-08 03:08