银河证券每日晨报-2025-04-08

Key Insights - The "reciprocal tariffs" imposed by the Trump administration represent the largest-scale impact on the global trade system to date, with ASEAN being one of the most affected regions, facing an average tariff increase of 33% [2][3] - The tariffs are expected to lead to significant restructuring of global supply chains and have direct and indirect impacts on ASEAN's export and foreign investment inflows [3][4] - The tariffs reflect four strategic objectives of the U.S.: reducing trade deficits with ASEAN countries, reshaping U.S. manufacturing advantages, blocking China's intermediate trade networks, and increasing U.S. influence in Southeast Asia [2] ASEAN Market Impact - ASEAN's export sectors, particularly those reliant on the U.S. and China, are likely to face severe challenges, with specific industries such as electrical equipment, furniture, and telecommunications being the most affected [3][4] - The high tariffs may trigger a global shift in key industrial supply chains, as ASEAN countries have become central to global electronics and automotive parts manufacturing [3] U.S. Market Dynamics - The U.S. equity market is experiencing a reassessment of risk premiums due to the tariffs, with significant implications for sectors reliant on imports [6][10] - The ongoing inflationary pressures and the potential for a recession are expected to weigh heavily on U.S. stock valuations, particularly in the technology sector, which has seen a disconnect between valuations and fundamentals [10] Gold and Rare Metals - The recent tariff increases have led to a strategic rise in gold asset allocations, with expectations for gold prices to remain above $3,000 per ounce, benefiting gold companies and leading to a potential revaluation of A-share gold stocks [23][24] - China's rare metals, particularly those with competitive advantages, may become tools in the trade conflict, with export controls likely to increase prices and valuations in the rare earth sector [23][24] Hong Kong Market Outlook - The Hong Kong market is expected to shift towards a defensive structure due to the heightened trade tensions, with recommendations to focus on sectors with lower trade dependencies and higher dividend yields, such as energy, telecommunications, and utilities [14][12] - The market's performance will largely depend on the outcomes of tariff negotiations and the implementation of these tariffs [14]