宝城期货甲醇早报-2025-04-08

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - The methanol futures contract 2505 is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend this week. Seasonal maintenance has a positive effect on methanol, but the scale is weaker than in previous years, and it is expected to drop to 5 million tons this year. The US's high - tariff policy may lead to intensified international trade disputes and global economic recession. After China's counter - tariff measures during the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, the prices of overseas stock markets, crude oil, natural gas and other commodities have fallen sharply. Although the night - session futures price rebounded slightly by 0.76% to 2400 yuan/ton, the rebound space is limited [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Methanol 2505 Performance - In the short - term, it is in a downward state; in the medium - term and intraday, it shows a weak and volatile trend, with a general view of weak operation. The core logic is that the bearish atmosphere dominates [1]. 3.2 Price Calculation Basis - For varieties with night - trading sessions, the starting price is the night - session closing price; for varieties without night - trading sessions, the starting price is the previous day's closing price. The end price is the day - session closing price of the current day, and then the price change is calculated [2]. 3.3 Price Change Definition - A decline of more than 1% is considered a decline; a decline of 0 - 1% is a weak and volatile state; an increase of 0 - 1% is a strong and volatile state; an increase of more than 1% is considered an increase. The strong/weak and volatile situation is only for the intraday view, and there is no such distinction for the short - term and medium - term [3][4].