FICC日报：关税风波进行时，关注欧盟等国反制措施-2025-04-08

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral [4] Core Viewpoints - External risks are rising, but the domestic trend remains optimistic. The Two Sessions in China set a positive tone for the year, with more proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies. The government has also increased the deficit ratio and set clear targets for CPI, while expanding government credit. China's official manufacturing PMI in March showed improvement, but the year-on-year performance is still weak, and the industry is showing differentiation. The external tariff pressure from the US has increased the possibility of further domestic easing [2] - Trump's "reciprocal tariff" policy has led to a significant shock in the global financial market. China has quickly taken countermeasures. The US tariff policy will lead to a decrease in demand and an increase in inflation, which will ultimately harm the US economy itself and put the Fed in a policy dilemma of stagflation. After a short-term adjustment, anti-inflation assets such as commodities and gold can be over-allocated [2] - From the perspective of commodity investment, in the short term, we need to be vigilant against the emotional impact of the tariff event, especially for industrial products. In the long term, we should focus on the stagflation configuration. Currently, the certainty of gold is relatively high [3] - For investment strategies, in the short term, pay attention to the liquidity risk caused by the tariff event. After the market stabilizes, focus on the allocation opportunities of anti-inflation assets such as gold and commodities, as well as A-shares [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The Two Sessions in China set a positive tone for the year, with a deficit ratio of 4% and a CPI target of 2%. The government has also set a special bond quota of 4.4 trillion, a local debt replacement quota of 2 trillion, and a special treasury bond of 1.8 trillion. China's official manufacturing PMI in March was 50.5, showing a month-on-month improvement but a year-on-year weakness [2] - On April 7, the US tariff policy led to a global financial market shock. A-shares opened lower, and the central Huijin Company carried out market stabilization operations. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 7.34%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 9.66%, and the ChiNext Index fell 12.5%. The central bank has continuously increased its gold reserves for five months, and the Ministry of Commerce held a roundtable meeting for US-funded enterprises [2] - Trump signed an executive order on "reciprocal tariffs" on April 2, imposing a 10% "minimum benchmark tariff" on trading partners and higher tariffs on some. China has taken countermeasures, including imposing a 34% tariff on all US imports and controlling the export of medium and heavy rare earths. The US tariff policy will lead to stagflation and put the Fed in a policy dilemma [2] Commodity Analysis - For industrial products such as black and non-ferrous metals, be vigilant against the emotional impact of the US stock adjustment. For agricultural products, the probability of price upward fluctuations caused by tariffs is greater, and pay attention to the change in the soybean-palm oil price difference. In the energy sector, the crude oil price has declined, and the medium-term supply is expected to be relatively loose [3] - Currently, the certainty of gold is relatively high, as the de-dollarization and overseas stagflation narratives support the gold price [3] Strategy - The overall strategy for commodities and stock index futures is neutral. In the short term, pay attention to the liquidity risk caused by the tariff event. After the market stabilizes, focus on the allocation opportunities of anti-inflation assets such as gold and commodities, as well as A-shares [4] - Pay attention to three signals of market sentiment easing: the stop of the decline of US stocks and gold, the unexpected easing of central banks such as the Fed, and the progress of tariff negotiations [4] Important News - Affected by overseas tariffs, A-shares adjusted, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling 7.34% to 3096.58 points, the Shenzhen Component Index falling 9.66%, and the ChiNext Index falling 12.5% [2][6] - The central Huijin Company announced that it has increased its holdings of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and will continue to do so to maintain the stability of the capital market [6] - China's gold reserves at the end of March were 73.7 million ounces, an increase from 73.61 million ounces at the end of February [6] - The Ministry of Commerce held a roundtable meeting for US-funded enterprises, strongly condemning the US tariff policy and emphasizing China's countermeasures to protect the legitimate rights and interests of enterprises and promote the US to return to the correct track of the multilateral trading system [6] - Central banks in Indonesia, South Korea, and Japan have taken measures to stabilize the market. The US Treasury yield curve has become steeper, and the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates significantly this year [6] - The Fed will hold a closed-door meeting on April 7 to review and determine the advance and discount rates charged by the Federal Reserve Banks [2][6] - The US dollar has depreciated against the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc [6]