高盛：用 80 张图表看全球：贸易战影响

Investment Rating - The report indicates a negative outlook for the freight industry, particularly in the Transpacific tradelane due to anticipated declines in trade volumes following US tariff increases [1][2]. Core Insights - Q1 freight volume data showed positive growth, with ocean volumes up approximately 5% and China port volumes up 10% year-over-year. However, this growth is expected to decline as frontloading of US imports is likely to reverse [1]. - The report anticipates a decline in ocean freight rates driven by reduced Transpacific volumes, with carriers expected to cut capacity by at least 5% globally [2][3]. - The air cargo sector is also projected to experience declining volumes, with significant drops noted in key markets such as Memphis and Europe [18][20][22]. Summary by Sections Freight - Q1 benefited from frontloading, but the outlook is weaker moving forward, with US retailers forecasting a mid-single-digit year-over-year import decline by June [1][13]. - Ocean freight rates are expected to decline further, influenced by the anticipated drop in volumes and subsequent capacity reductions by carriers [2][3]. Air Freight - Air freight volume growth is slowing, with new orders and inventory ratios indicating weaker demand trends [18][20]. - Cargo volumes at major European hubs have decreased year-over-year, reflecting broader trends in air cargo [22][25]. Shipping - The report highlights falling freight rates, particularly in the Transpacific and Atlantic routes, with spot rates expected to continue their downward trend [80][82][88]. - The report notes that charter rates have risen, but scrapping of vessels remains low, indicating a potential buffer for carriers as demand softens [101][103]. Travel - There is uncertainty regarding demand outlook in the travel sector, with a noted decline in foreign arrivals to the US and weaker trends in European short-haul travel [4][9]. - The report suggests that significant declines in travel demand are unlikely unless employment levels fall [9].