政策与大类资产配置周观察：波动率放大已处于历史极端状态

Group 1: Domestic Policy Analysis - The Central Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China emphasized the importance of ecological environment protection and the political responsibility of various regions and departments in building a beautiful China [10][13] - The State Council decided to impose a 34% tariff on all imported goods from the United States in response to the "reciprocal tariffs" announced by Trump [15][26] - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development released a new national standard for residential projects, aiming to promote high-quality housing supply [14][26] Group 2: International Policy Analysis - Trump's announcement of a national emergency and the implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" led to significant market volatility, with the VIX index rising above 45, indicating extreme market conditions [5][25] - The U.S. stock market experienced a substantial decline, with a total market capitalization loss of $5 trillion over two days [2][25] - The tariffs imposed on various countries, including a 34% tariff on China, are expected to escalate trade tensions and impact global markets [15][24] Group 3: Equity Market Analysis - A-shares experienced a general decline due to the global liquidity crisis triggered by Trump's tariffs, with the ChiNext index falling nearly 3% [3][27] - The MSCI China A-share index saw a slight drop of 1.5%, maintaining below 3350 points during the week [27] - Southbound capital continued to flow into the market, with a total inflow of 59.379 billion yuan during the week ending March 31 [27] Group 4: Fixed Income Market Analysis - The overall funding environment returned to a loose state, with the central bank withdrawing a total of 501.9 billion yuan in funds during the week [48] - The yield on ten-year government bonds continued to decline, reaching below 1.75% [48][49] - The central bank conducted an 800 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation to maintain liquidity in the banking system [50][51] Group 5: Commodity Market Analysis - The prices of non-ferrous metals began to decline, while crude oil prices continued to fall [3] - The Ministry of Commerce announced export controls on certain rare earth items, reflecting the ongoing trade tensions [26] - The OPEC+ group is expected to increase production in May to stabilize the oil market [26] Group 6: Foreign Exchange Market Analysis - The U.S. dollar index fell by 1.07% to 102.92, while the renminbi appreciated by 0.37% to 7.297 [4] - The People's Bank of China is expected to maintain a cautious approach to monetary policy amid rising trade tensions [4] - The trade promotion agency's survey indicated a positive outlook for exports in the first half of 2025 [4]