华宝期货晨报铝锭-2025-04-08

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - For finished products, the view is that they will operate in a range-bound and consolidating manner, with the price center shifting downward and weak operation. The market is in a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the winter storage this year is sluggish, providing little support for prices. Later, attention should be paid to macro policies and downstream demand [1][2]. - For aluminum ingots, in the short term, the price is expected to undergo weak adjustments, with increased price fluctuations. The domestic market is expected to be relatively firm compared to the external market. In the long term, the US "equivalent tariff" will affect domestic aluminum demand, and attention should be paid to the demand reduction after the tariff is implemented. Later, attention should be paid to macro - expectations, geopolitical crises, mine resumption, and consumption release [2][3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Finished Products - Production Suspension Impact: Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises will suspend production during the Spring Festival from mid - January, with a resumption around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total of 741,000 tons of construction steel production. In Anhui, 6 short - process steel mills, 1 started to suspend production on January 5, and most of the rest will suspend production around mid - January, with an estimated daily production impact of about 16,200 tons for some steel mills [1][2]. - Real Estate Transaction Data: From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase from the same period last year [2]. - Market Situation: Yesterday, finished products continued to decline in a volatile manner, reaching a new low. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and the price center continues to shift downward. The winter storage this year is sluggish, providing little support for prices [2]. Aluminum Ingots - Production Capacity and Inventory: In March 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity increased month - on - month due to the resumption of production in electrolytic aluminum plants. In April, it continued to rise. On April 7, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 774,000 tons, an increase of 9,000 tons compared to before the Tomb - Sweeping Festival and a decrease of 26,000 tons compared to the previous Monday. Although there was a 9,000 - ton inventory increase during the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, the overall de - stocking trend in the first half of April remained unchanged [2]. - Demand and Price: The demand for photovoltaic, new energy vehicles, and power grid infrastructure provides core support, while traditional industries such as building profiles and fuel vehicles have weak demand. The US tariff policy may suppress overseas demand for aluminum, and the market has digested some of the negative expectations. In the short term, the market is worried about the global economic situation, and the aluminum price fluctuates greatly. The domestic market is expected to be relatively firm, and the import parity has improved. In the long term, the US tariff will affect domestic aluminum demand [2]. - Market Performance: Yesterday, the Shanghai Aluminum price adjusted downward at the opening, mainly due to the release of the "equivalent tariff" sentiment in the US last week. The subsequent decline narrowed. The US tariff has led to concerns about a global economic recession, and the US dollar has risen slightly [1].