CBC(600132) 开源证券·2025-04-08 06:23Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to maintain high dividends, supporting the stock price despite short-term pressures and inventory reduction [4] - In 2024, the company's revenue was 14.645 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1%, with net profit attributable to the parent company at 1.115 billion yuan, down 16.6% year-on-year [4] - The forecast for net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025-2026 has been revised down to 1.194 billion yuan and 1.251 billion yuan, respectively, due to increased depreciation from the new factory in Foshan [4] - The macroeconomic recovery is expected to improve the restaurant sector, which could benefit the company [4] Financial Summary - The total market capitalization of the company is 27.344 billion yuan, with a current stock price of 56.50 yuan [1] - The company's revenue for 2023 was 14.815 billion yuan, with a projected revenue of 14.777 billion yuan for 2025, reflecting a slight increase [9] - The net profit margin for 2024 is projected to be 7.6%, down from 9.0% in 2023, indicating a decline in profitability [12] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 2.47 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 22.9 times [9][12] Sales and Market Dynamics - In 2024, the company's beer sales volume and price per ton decreased by 0.8% and 0.4% year-on-year, respectively, due to weak restaurant consumption and increased rainy weather [5] - The revenue from high-end, mainstream, and mass-market beers showed varied performance, with mass-market beer revenue increasing by 15.6% [5] - The company continues to experience fluctuations in mainstream product demand, leading to a shift in consumer preference towards lower-priced products [5] Profitability and Cost Structure - The company's net profit margin decreased by 1.41 percentage points year-on-year in 2024, primarily due to a decline in ton price [6] - The gross profit margin for 2024 is projected at 48.6%, slightly down from 49.1% in 2023 [9][12] - The company has maintained a trend of controlling costs despite a slight increase in expense ratios due to declining revenue [6][7]