碳酸锂日评：国内碳酸锂4月供给预期偏松，三元材料厂库存量较上周增加-2025-04-08

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - In April 2025, the domestic supply of lithium carbonate is expected to be loose, and the price is likely to be hard to rise and easy to fall. It is recommended that investors mainly lay out short positions when the price rebounds, paying attention to the support level around 60,000 - 70,000 and the pressure level around 73,000 - 75,000 [1] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Data - Lithium Carbonate Futures: On April 7, 2025, the closing prices of the near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts were 70,800, 71,060, 71,280, and 71,280 yuan/ton respectively, down 2,160, 2,100, 2,180, and 2,180 yuan/ton compared with April 3. The trading volume was 154,107 lots, an increase of 72,390 lots compared with April 3, and the open interest was 179,831 lots, a decrease of 19,617 lots [1] - Lithium Ore and Lithium Compounds: The average prices of various lithium ores and lithium compounds such as spodumene concentrate, lithium mica, and lithium carbonate decreased to varying degrees on April 7 compared with April 3. For example, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5% domestic) was 72,600 yuan/ton, down 1,300 yuan/ton [1] - Other Battery Materials: The average prices of some battery materials such as ternary precursors, ternary materials, and phosphoric acid iron lithium also decreased. For example, the average price of phosphoric acid iron lithium (power type) was 33,267.5 yuan/ton, down 307.5 yuan/ton [1] Important Information - Company Investment: Huasheng Lithium plans to invest about 990 million yuan to build a "60,000 - ton/year lithium carbonate vinyl carbonate (NC) project" [1] - Chilean Exports: In March 2025, the export volume of Chilean lithium salt was 23,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 58% and a year - on - year increase of 18%. The export volume to China was 16,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 38% and a year - on - year increase of 39% [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: The supply of lithium carbonate is expected to be loose. Some new production capacities are planned to be put into operation, and the inventory of SMM lithium carbonate has increased. The production volume of lithium hydroxide may increase, but the export volume may decrease [1] - Demand: The production (inventory) volume of phosphoric acid iron and phosphoric acid iron lithium in April may increase month - on - month. The production volume of some battery materials such as ternary precursors and ternary materials may also increase, but the export volume of some products may decrease [1] Trading Strategy - It is recommended that investors mainly lay out short positions when the price rebounds, paying attention to the support level around 60,000 - 70,000 and the pressure level around 73,000 - 75,000 [1]