人民日报：降准、降息随时可以出台，资金面边际收敛，债市大幅走强-2025-04-08

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views - On April 7, the funding situation tightened marginally, with major repurchase rates rising; market risk aversion continued to increase, and the probability of short - term reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts rose, leading to the continued strength of the bond market; the convertible bond market followed the equity market and declined significantly, with most convertible bond issues falling; overseas, yields on U.S. Treasuries across all maturities generally increased, and yields on 10 - year government bonds of major European economies generally rose [1] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Bond Market News 3.1.1 Domestic News - The "Plan for Accelerating the Construction of an Agricultural Power (2024 - 2035)" proposes to improve the distribution mechanism of land value - added income, and sets clear goals for the construction of an agricultural power at different stages [3] - On April 7, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a video conference to expand the use of special bonds in the agricultural and rural sectors, emphasizing the role of special bonds and putting forward requirements for their use [4] - As of the end of March 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves reached $324.07 billion, up $1.34 billion from the end of February, an increase of 0.42%, and the central bank has increased its gold reserves for five consecutive months [5] - On April 7, People's Daily stated that there is room for adjustment of monetary policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and fiscal policy has room for further expansion. There are also plans to boost consumption, stabilize the capital market, and help affected industries and enterprises [6] - On April 7, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange released the "Green Bond White Paper", which introduced the overall policy framework and development of the green bond market [7] 3.1.2 International News - Former New York Fed President Bill Dudley said that Trump's tariff policy will push up inflation in the U.S., suppress demand, and weaken the long - term growth potential of the U.S. economy. Stagflation is the most optimistic scenario, and the Fed is in a dilemma [8][9] 3.1.3 Commodities - On April 7, international crude oil futures prices continued to fall, with WTI May crude futures down 2.08% to $60.70 per barrel, and Brent June crude futures down 2.09% to $64.21 per barrel; COMEX gold futures fell 1.16% to $3000.20 per ounce; NYMEX natural gas prices fell 4.98% to $3.629 per ounce [10] 3.2 Funding Situation 3.2.1 Open Market Operations - On April 7, the central bank conducted 7 - day reverse repurchase operations worth 93.5 billion yuan at a fixed interest rate of 1.50%. With 245.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchases and 150 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - term deposits maturing on the same day, the net withdrawal of funds was 301.7 billion yuan [12] 3.2.2 Funding Rates - On April 7, the central bank's open - market operations led to a net withdrawal of funds, and major repurchase rates rose. DR001 increased by 11.99bp to 1.744%, and DR007 increased by 4.46bp to 1.743% [13] 3.3 Bond Market Dynamics 3.3.1 Interest - Rate Bonds - Spot Bond Yield Trends: On April 7, due to anti - tariff measures and U.S. tariff uncertainties, market risk aversion increased, and the bond market remained strong. Yields on 10 - year treasury bonds and 10 - year China Development Bank bonds declined [16] - Bond Tendering: Information on the issuance scale, winning yields, and other aspects of several agricultural development bonds was provided [18] 3.3.2 Credit Bonds - Secondary Market Transaction Anomalies: On April 7, the trading prices of two industrial bonds deviated by more than 10%, with "H0 Baolong 04" falling more than 21% and "H0 Yangcheng 04" rising more than 220% [18] - Credit Bond Events: There were announcements from companies such as South China City, Kunming Urban Construction Investment, and Rizhao Lanshan Urban Construction regarding issues such as court hearings, being included in the list of dishonest executors, and bill overdue [19] 3.3.3 Convertible Bonds - Equity and Convertible Bond Indexes: On April 7, the three major A - share indexes fell collectively, and the convertible bond market also declined significantly, with most convertible bond issues falling [20] - Convertible Bond Tracking: Information on the online subscription of Qingyuan Convertible Bonds, the listing of Zhibang Convertible Bonds, and the non - downward adjustment of the conversion price of Kairun Convertible Bonds was provided [26] 3.3.4 Overseas Bond Markets - U.S. Bond Market: On April 7, yields on U.S. Treasuries across all maturities generally increased, and the yield spreads between different maturities widened. The break - even inflation rate of 10 - year U.S. Treasury Inflation - Protected Securities (TIPS) increased by 1bp to 2.19% [22][23][24] - European Bond Market: On April 7, yields on 10 - year government bonds of major European economies generally increased [25] - Daily Price Changes of Chinese - Issued U.S. Dollar Bonds: Information on the daily price changes of Chinese - issued U.S. dollar bonds as of the close on April 7 was provided, including single - day gainers and losers [28]