Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Viewpoints - The dairy farming industry is cyclical, with the current round of milk price decline exceeding three years. The average price of fresh milk in major production areas has been in a downward trend since September 2021, dropping nearly 30% from its peak [2][30] - The industry is entering a capacity adjustment phase in 2023, with a more accelerated phase expected in 2025. The national dairy cow inventory is projected to decrease, with a potential balance point around 590 million heads [2][84] - Investment suggestions focus on large leading farms, as they are better positioned to withstand cyclical downturns and benefit from potential upturns [2][84] Summary by Sections Industry Introduction - Dairy cows are primarily Holstein cattle, which are known for their high milk production. The industry has evolved from traditional farming to modern, large-scale operations [8][13] Demand: Phase Adjustment, Market Potential - The demand for raw milk is relatively inelastic, but supply fluctuations are more pronounced. The consumption of dairy products has started to decline since 2022 due to various macroeconomic and demographic factors [20][36] - The per capita consumption of dairy products in China is still significantly lower than the global average, indicating room for growth [39][42] Supply: Capacity Deconstruction at a Critical Moment - The milk production in China has seen a continuous increase from 2018 to 2023, but is expected to decline in 2024 due to oversupply and reduced demand [44] - The increase in dairy cow inventory from 2019 to 2023 was 1.77 million heads, a growth rate of 37.6%, while the average milk yield per cow increased from 7.4 tons to 9.4 tons [47] Market Structure: Dairy Enterprises Competing for Milk Sources - The concentration of dairy farms is high, with over 76% of farms having more than 100 cows. Major dairy companies have secured a significant portion of the milk supply through acquisitions and partnerships [75][76] - The pricing power of private farms is weak compared to corporate farms, leading to significant price disparities in raw milk purchases [80] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the dairy farming industry is approaching a stabilization phase, with potential for investment in large-scale farms that can better manage risks associated with cyclical downturns [84]
奶牛养殖行业深度研究报告:产能去化加速,周期企稳可期
China Post Securities·2025-04-08 06:30