金融工程行业景气月报：煤炭景气度延续下滑，关注基建托底可能性-2025-04-08

• The coal industry profit growth prediction model is based on the monthly price index mechanism, which determines the sales price for the following month. Using price factors and capacity factors, the model estimates revenue and profit growth rates on a monthly basis[10][14] - The hog supply-demand gap prediction model uses the relationship between hogs' birth-to-slaughter cycle (6 months) and the ratio of quarterly hog slaughter to breeding sow inventory lagged by 6 months. The formula is: $ \text{Slaughter Coefficient} = \frac{\text{Quarterly Hog Slaughter}}{\text{Breeding Sow Inventory (lagged 6 months)}} $ $ \text{Potential Capacity (6 months later)} = \text{Current Breeding Sow Inventory} \times \text{Slaughter Coefficient (lagged 6 months)} $[15][16] - The steel industry profit prediction model incorporates comprehensive steel prices and costs of raw materials such as iron ore, coke, coal, and scrap steel. It calculates monthly profit growth rates and per-ton profitability[18][22] - The glass and cement industry profitability tracking model uses price and cost indicators to monitor profit changes. For glass, the model measures flat glass margins, while for cement, it predicts profit growth driven by price recovery[25][29] - The fuel refining and oil service industry model calculates profit growth rates and cracking spreads based on changes in fuel prices, crude oil prices, and new drilling activity. It also designs allocation signals using these factors[30][36] - The hog supply-demand gap prediction model indicates a potential oversupply of 290,000 hogs for Q3 2025, based on breeding sow inventory and historical slaughter coefficients[17] - The steel industry model predicts positive profit growth for March 2025 due to a larger decline in raw material costs compared to product price drops[22] - The glass industry model shows a continued decline in flat glass margins for March 2025, while the cement industry model predicts positive profit growth driven by price recovery[29] - The fuel refining model forecasts slight positive profit growth for March 2025 due to stable refining values and reduced crude oil import costs, but notes potential inventory losses from early April oil price drops[30][36]