有色金属周报（铅）：避险情绪发酵，铅价跟随板块走势回落-2025-04-08

Report Information - Report Title: Non-ferrous Metals Weekly Report (Lead) [1] - Date: April 8, 2025 [1] - Institution: Hongyuan Futures Research Institute [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The downstream is affected by the off - season, with weak inventory preparation and light market trading. The supply side has both increases and decreases, and the fundamentals have insufficient support for lead prices. With the intensification of the US tariff policy on the macro - level, although the policy itself has little impact on the lead market, market risk - aversion sentiment has risen, and lead prices are under pressure to fall. It is expected that lead prices will be mainly sorted at a low level in the short term, with an operating range of 16,000 - 17,500 yuan/ton [2] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Price Changes: The average price of SMM1 lead ingots decreased by 2.02% to 16,975 yuan/ton; the closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract decreased by 2.92% to 17,100 yuan/ton; the London lead closing price (electronic disk) decreased by 5.90% to 1,906 US dollars/ton [15] - Basis: Data on the basis, Shanghai lead spot premium and discount, LME lead premium and discount, and the difference between consecutive contracts are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [16][18][22][23] 2. Increases and Decreases Coexist, and Primary Lead Operation Fluctuates Slightly - Refinery Situation: Domestic lead concentrate processing fees remained flat, with the domestic TC at 650 yuan/metal ton and the imported TC at - 20 US dollars/dry ton. The mine end was continuously in short supply, and there was no expectation of adjustment in market TC quotes. Refinery profits recovered, reaching 69 yuan/ton as of March 28 [31] - Primary Lead Operating Rate: The primary lead operating rate decreased by 0.55 percentage points to 61.48%. In April, electrolytic lead maintenance and restart coexisted, and the output was expected to be the same as that in March. If lead prices continued to fall, refineries might cut production [32][37] - Weekly Output of Deliverable Primary Lead Smelters: The total weekly output of deliverable primary lead smelters decreased from 49,525 tons in the week of March 28 to 46,995 tons this week due to factors such as refinery maintenance [40] 3. The Operation of Secondary Lead Recovers, but the Raw Material Problem Remains Unsolved - Waste Battery Prices: As of April 7, the average price of waste batteries was 10,100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 175 yuan/ton month - on - month [48] - Secondary Lead Profits: As of April 3, the comprehensive profit and loss of large - scale secondary lead enterprises was - 200 yuan/ton, and that of small - and medium - scale secondary lead enterprises was - 422 yuan/ton [54] - Raw Material and Finished Product Inventories: As of April 4, secondary lead raw material inventory was 17.91 tons, and finished product inventory was 10,440 tons. Refineries stocked up before the festival, but waste battery supplies were still tight, and downstream demand decreased during the festival, leading to inventory accumulation [58] - Secondary Lead Operating Rate: The secondary lead enterprise operating rate increased by 3.14 percentage points to 62.46%. As of last Friday, the weekly output of secondary lead was 67,400 tons. Some refineries in Anhui increased their operation due to more raw material arrivals, while operations in Henan, Jiangsu, and Inner Mongolia were relatively stable [61] 4. The Off - Season Intensifies, and Battery Operation Declines - Lead Battery Operating Rate: The lead battery operating rate decreased by 3.65 percentage points to 70.21%. Affected by the off - season and rising prices of auxiliary materials such as antimony and tin, battery enterprises' production enthusiasm was low, and some enterprises chose to stop production or adjust their production plans [70] 5. Import and Export Profit Windows are Closed - Export and Import Situation: As of March 28, the export of refined lead suffered a loss of about 2,700 yuan/ton. As of April 7, the import profit was - 117.59 yuan/ton, and the import profit window was closed [79] 6. Social Inventory Decreases Slightly - Domestic Social Inventory: As of April 3, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five locations was 70,000 tons, showing a decrease. The decline in primary lead enterprise operation and pre - festival inventory preparation by downstream enterprises led to a slight decrease in social inventory [89] - SHFE and LME Inventories: As of April 3, SHFE refined lead inventory was 65,800 tons, a decrease month - on - month. As of March 21, LME inventory was 235,850 tons, showing an increase [92] - Monthly Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: Data on the monthly supply - demand balance of lead from January 2024 to February 2025 are presented, including primary lead output, secondary lead output, export volume, import volume, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and comprehensive inventory [93]