EBSCN·2025-04-08 07:57Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the banking industry, indicating an expected investment return exceeding the market benchmark index by over 15% in the next 6-12 months [1]. Core Insights - The report anticipates a seasonal rebound in credit issuance in March, with an expected increase in new RMB loans of approximately 3.2 trillion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of about 7.3% [4][16]. - The liquidity outlook for April suggests a marginal easing of the financial environment, with the central bank likely to maintain a relatively loose monetary policy to counter potential risks amid increasing external uncertainties [24][30]. Summary by Sections Financial Data and Liquidity Outlook - March's financial data is expected to show a strong seasonal recovery in credit issuance, with new loans projected at 3.2 trillion RMB, slightly higher than the previous year [4]. - The report highlights a "tail" effect in bill rates at the end of March, with a rebound in credit issuance strength and positive performance in leading indicators like PMI [3][4]. Credit Structure - Corporate loans remain the primary driver of credit growth, while retail loans are experiencing a "price reduction promotion" strategy, with household financing needs still in the process of recovery [5][7]. - The report notes that the demand for corporate loans is supported by improved industrial production and infrastructure investments, with March's manufacturing PMI rising to 50.5% [5]. Social Financing - The report estimates that new social financing in March will be around 5.1 trillion RMB, maintaining an 8.2% growth rate compared to February [13]. - The main contributors to this growth are on-balance sheet loans and government bonds, with a notable increase in government bond financing [15]. Monetary Supply and Policy Outlook - M1 and M2 growth rates are expected to improve in March, driven by increased fiscal spending and a shift of government deposits to the private sector [20][22]. - The report anticipates that the central bank may implement further counter-cyclical monetary policies, including potential interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio adjustments, to ensure liquidity remains ample [31][32].