美股策略：市场进入观察期

Group 1 - The report discusses the impact of reciprocal tariffs on the market, indicating that the current market environment is entering an observation period due to heightened uncertainty and volatility [3][45][51] - The U.S. has the largest trade deficit globally, with a total trade deficit of $917.8 billion in 2024, which is 1.8 times that of 2015, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 7% over the past decade [7][17] - The report highlights that the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration are aimed at reducing trade deficits with various countries, with specific rates such as 34% on Chinese goods and 46% on Vietnamese products [17][22][31] Group 2 - The report notes a significant shift in the market dynamics compared to 2018, with broader implications for global trade relationships and potential long-term impacts on supply chains [23][26][41] - The U.S. stock market has experienced substantial fluctuations, with major indices like the S&P 500 seeing declines of 8.6% to 9.8% in recent weeks due to tariff announcements [50][58] - The report emphasizes the potential ripple effects on Southeast Asian economies, particularly Vietnam and Thailand, as they face increased tariffs that could disrupt their export markets [41][44][45] Group 3 - The U.S. macroeconomic indicators show a decline in manufacturing activity, with the ISM manufacturing index dropping to 49.0, indicating contraction for the first time this year [66] - Employment data remains robust, with an increase of 228,000 non-farm jobs in March, suggesting that while hiring is strong, overall business confidence is waning [74] - The report outlines that the uncertainty surrounding tariffs is leading to cautious investment strategies among businesses, which could hinder future economic growth [70]