Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoint of the Report - Short - term hog prices may fluctuate at a low level, and there may still be a possibility of new lows in the long - term [3] - The core logic is that the hog slaughter volume may increase monthly in the first half of 2025, pork consumption is in the off - season, and although there may be new lows in the long - term, due to high uncertainty and the recent firm performance of the spot market, it is recommended to wait and see [3] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Overview - On April 7, 2025, the national average hog slaughter price was 14.59 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/kg from April 3, with a decline of 0.07% [5] - The hog slaughter price in Henan was 14.59 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.08 yuan/kg from April 3, with an increase of 0.55% [5] - The hog slaughter price in Sichuan remained unchanged at 14.45 yuan/kg [5] - Among the futures prices, the 01 contract was 13785 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton from April 3, with an increase of 0.04% [5] - The 03 contract was 13170 yuan/ton, an increase of 70 yuan/ton from April 3, with an increase of 0.53% [5] - The 05 contract was 13330 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan/ton from April 3, with an increase of 0.45% [5] - The 07 contract remained unchanged at 13480 yuan/ton [5] - The 09 contract was 13900 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton from April 3, with an increase of 0.29% [5] - The 11 contract was 13700 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton from April 3, with an increase of 0.07% [5] - The main basis in Henan remained unchanged at 1260 yuan/ton [5] Key Data Tracking - The report presents data trends of national hog slaughter price, sample enterprise slaughter volume, white - striped pork average price, national corn granary purchase average price, futures contract closing price in the recent 180 days, main contract basis in Henan, 05 - 07 contract spread, and 05 - 09 contract spread from 2022 to 2025 [6][7][9][10][12] Market Dynamics and Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the number of fertile sows, the hog supply is expected to increase monthly from March to December, and from the perspective of piglet data, the hog slaughter volume in the first half of 2025 may increase monthly; the first half of the year is the off - season for consumption compared to the second half [2] - Based on historical and current fundamentals, the fat - standard price difference may continue to decline [2] - The short - selling logic includes that the hog slaughter volume in the first half of 2025 still has room to increase and the current breeding end is still increasing weight, which is actually negative for future hog prices; the long - buying logic includes that the recent hog prices have been relatively firm and the futures discount is large, making long - buying cost - effective [2] Strategy Suggestions - The short - term hog price may fluctuate at a low level, and there may still be a possibility of new lows in the long - term [3] - The core logic is that the hog slaughter volume in the first half of 2025 may increase monthly, the current pork consumption is in the off - season, and although there may be new lows in the long - term, due to high uncertainty and the recent firm performance of the spot market, it is recommended to wait and see [3] Other Information - The second - round fattening has both entries and exits, with limited impact on the market [4] - As of April 7, the total number of registered hog warehouse receipts was 0 [4] - The main contract (LH2505) reduced its position by 2321 lots today, with a position of about 45,900 lots, a maximum price of 13,500 yuan/ton, a minimum price of 13,260 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 13,330 yuan/ton [4]
生猪日报：期价宽幅震荡-2025-04-08
Rong Da Qi Huo ( Zheng Zhou )·2025-04-08 08:56