新世纪期货交易提示（2025-4-8）-2025-04-08

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Weak [2] - Coking coal and coke: Weak [2] - Rebar: Weak [2] - Glass: Weak [2] - Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index: Rebound [2] - CSI 300 Index: Volatility [2] - CSI 500 Index: Volatility [3] - CSI 1000 Index: Volatility [3] - 2 - year Treasury bond: Volatility [3] - 5 - year Treasury bond: Upward [3] - 10 - year Treasury bond: Upward [3] - Gold: Correction [3] - Silver: Correction [3] - Soybean oil: Weakly volatile [6] - Palm oil: Weakly volatile [6] - Rapeseed oil: Weakly volatile [6] - Soybean meal: Volatility [6] - Rapeseed meal: Volatility [6] - Soybean No. 2: Volatility [6] - Rubber: Weakly volatile [6] - Pulp: Weakly volatile [7] - Log: Weakly volatile [7] - PX: Wait - and - see [7] - PTA: Wait - and - see [7] - MEG: Wait - and - see [7] - PR: Wait - and - see [7] - PF: Buy on dips [7] - Plastic: Weakly volatile [7] - PP: Weakly volatile [8] - PVC: Weakly volatile [8] Core Viewpoints - The global trade situation is tense due to Trump's tariff policies, which have a negative impact on various industries, especially the black metal and export - related industries. However, China has a series of policy tools in reserve to stabilize the economy and the capital market [2][3]. - The prices of most commodities are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost, and policy. For example, the supply of iron ore is expected to increase, while the demand is restricted; the coal - coke industry is adjusting its supply sources; the real estate - related glass and building materials industries are affected by demand recovery and policy [2][3][7]. - In the financial market, the stock index is expected to be supported by policy, and the bond market shows different trends according to different maturities. The price of precious metals is affected by multiple factors such as geopolitics, interest rates, and demand [3]. - The agricultural and oil - fat markets are affected by factors such as seasonal production, trade policies, and supply - demand relationships. For example, the palm oil is in the production - increasing season, and the soybean market is affected by planting area, inventory, and trade tariffs [6]. Summary by Categories Black Metal Industry - Iron ore: The global trade situation restricts the export of steel products and downstream products, dragging down the demand for raw materials. The supply of iron ore is expected to increase, and the daily molten iron output has a limited upward space. Stable investors can consider the 05 - 09 positive spread operation of iron ore and the long - term short allocation of the 09 contract [2]. - Coal - coke: The increase in tariffs on imported coal from the US will lead to a decrease in imports from the US and an increase in imports from other countries. The supply of coke is still in an over - supply pattern, and the coal - coke market generally follows the trend of finished products [2]. - Rebar: The mutual increase in tariffs is negative for the black metal industry. Although there may be domestic stimulus policies, it is difficult to reverse the situation. The demand for rebar is in a weak recovery stage, and the price may hit a new low in the short term [2]. - Glass: The production and sales in Shahe have declined, and the production is expected to increase slightly. The demand is in a seasonal recovery, and the price of the 2505 contract is under pressure [2]. Financial Market - Stock index: The previous trading day's stock index fell, but future policies such as reserve requirement ratio cuts, interest rate cuts, and fiscal stimulus are expected to support the capital market. The agricultural sector has capital inflows, and the stock index is expected to be stable [3]. - Treasury bond: The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond has decreased, and the central bank has carried out reverse repurchase operations. The 2 - year Treasury bond shows a volatile trend, while the 5 - year and 10 - year Treasury bonds are expected to rise [3]. - Precious metals: The price of gold is affected by multiple factors such as geopolitics, interest rates, and demand. Although the logic of the previous price increase has not completely reversed, the short - term price is under pressure due to the strengthening of the US dollar. The price of silver also shows a correction trend [3]. Agricultural and Oil - Fat Market - Oil - fat: The palm oil in Southeast Asia is in the production - increasing season, and the inventory is expected to rise. The supply of domestic soybeans is expected to increase, and the overall supply of the three major oils is abundant. The price of oils is expected to be weakly volatile [6]. - Oil - meal: The US soybean faces export risks, but the domestic supply of soybeans is expected to improve. The demand for downstream products is cautious, and the price of soybean meal is expected to be volatile [6]. - Soybean No. 2: The export of Brazilian new soybeans is accelerating, and the supply of domestic soybeans is expected to increase. The price is expected to be volatile, affected by factors such as weather and trade policies [6]. Other Commodities - Rubber: The supply of natural rubber is expected to increase, and the demand is affected by the tariff dispute. The price is expected to be weakly volatile [6]. - Pulp: The cost of pulp is strongly supported, but the demand from the papermaking industry is weak. The price is expected to be weakly volatile [7]. - Log: The supply pressure of logs is decreasing, and the inventory is being reduced. The price is expected to be mainly volatile [7]. - Chemical Products: The prices of PX, PTA, MEG, and PR are affected by factors such as raw material prices, supply - demand relationships, and trade policies, and are generally in a wait - and - see state. The price of PF is expected to be weak in the short term, and the prices of plastic, PP, and PVC are expected to be weakly volatile [7][8].