巩义地区铝消费调研报告

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - The long - term logic for aluminum prices is that the supply side of electrolytic aluminum is restricted and the consumption side will continue to grow slightly. However, from the perspective of processing enterprises, the supply growth rate of intermediate processed products is greater than the consumption growth rate, resulting in insufficient orders and compressed processing profits for processing enterprises [6][17]. - Although the starting rate of aluminum plate and strip is at a relatively low historical level, it does not actually affect the actual consumption of aluminum. The reasons are the expansion of processing enterprises in the northwest region and the concentrated new production capacity in Gongyi since 2024, with a conservative estimate of at least 1 million tons [6][16]. - Downstream processing enterprises have a rigid demand for aluminum ingot procurement. If the aluminum price回调, it may stimulate downstream replenishment behavior [6][13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Report Abstract - In early 2025, the price of electrolytic aluminum showed a unilateral upward trend, with the weighted contract rising from 19,800 yuan/ton on December 31, 2024, to 21,100 yuan/ton on March 14, 2025, a increase of 6.5%. During this period, the electrolytic aluminum industry had rich profits, but the processing fees of downstream enterprises were meager, and the procurement enthusiasm was insufficient [3][11]. - The long - term logic for aluminum prices is that the supply side is restricted and the consumption side will grow slightly. From the perspective of processing enterprises, the supply of intermediate processed products grows faster than consumption, leading to insufficient orders and compressed profits [6][17]. - Processing enterprises transfer raw material inventory upstream to avoid delivery risks, with a normal raw material inventory reserve of 1 day. The low starting rate of aluminum plate and strip does not affect actual consumption due to northwest expansion and new capacity in Gongyi. The increase in出库 volume before the Tomb - Sweeping Festival indicates downstream procurement demand when prices decline [6][13][16]. 3.2 Research Overview - Research background: The upward trend of electrolytic aluminum prices, rich industry profits, meager processing fees of downstream enterprises, and high - price aversion of market participants led to the research in Gongyi, Henan [3][11]. - Research objects: Aluminum plate, strip and foil production enterprises, wire and cable enterprises, and local traders in Gongyi, Henan [12]. - Research conclusions: Gongyi's aluminum ingot inventory is in a destocking cycle and at a historical low. The low starting rate of aluminum plate and strip does not affect actual consumption. Downstream enterprises have a rigid demand for aluminum ingots, and price declines may stimulate replenishment [13][16]. 3.3 Research Enterprise Details - Enterprise 1: A trading and processing enterprise with no own production plant, renting production equipment. Monthly output is 3,000 tons, with a current finished product inventory of 300 tons. Processing fees are meager, with high - end profits of 100 - 200 yuan/ton and low - end near the break - even point [23]. - Enterprise 2: An aluminum plate, strip and foil production enterprise with an annual capacity of 150,000 tons. Current operating capacity is about 110,000 tons, consuming 150 tons of A00 aluminum ingots per day. Normal finished product inventory is 2,000 tons. Production continues, and cost factors include natural gas and electricity [24]. - Enterprise 3: A wire and cable enterprise mainly producing UHV wire and cable, with an annual aluminum rod consumption of 100,000 tons. Orders are sufficient but profits are compressed. It also has an aluminum plate and strip processing plant with a daily output of 400 tons and a 1 - day A00 aluminum ingot inventory [25]. - Enterprise 4: A wire and cable enterprise with 60% - 70% aluminum cables. Aluminum cable orders are mainly for export, and the export situation is good, but there is a shortage of US dollars [26][27]. - Enterprise 5: A company mainly engaged in aluminum plate cutting, with a monthly output of 600 - 700 tons. Finished product and raw material inventory is 400 - 500 tons. Gongyi's aluminum plate inventory is relatively low, and it is impacted by northwest aluminum plates [28]. - Enterprise 6: An aluminum ingot trader with a trading volume of 200,000 tons in 2024. The increase in出库 volume before the Tomb - Sweeping Festival indicates downstream procurement demand when prices decline. Local aluminum plate and strip enterprises have difficult business with low gross profit margins [29].