碳酸锂日报：碳酸锂下探七万关口，期价运行短期内受到成本支撑-2025-04-08

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On April 7th, the lithium carbonate futures fluctuated continuously. The main contract LC2505 closed at 71,060 yuan/ton, down 2.87% from the previous trading day's close. The spot price of lithium carbonate continued to fluctuate within a narrow range, with the average transaction price of battery - grade lithium carbonate down 1,300 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1]. - Last week, the weekly production of lithium carbonate continued to decline but remained at a high level. The weekly production of downstream terminals continued to recover, but the entire market still faced significant inventory pressure. Meanwhile, the registration speed of new lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was slow, increasing the pressure on the circulation market [1]. - In the futures market, affected by tariff factors, the LC2505 contract of lithium carbonate futures tested the 70,000 - yuan integer mark and then rebounded, remaining relatively strong in the overall market. The cost support at the lower level was tested periodically [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Market Summary - On April 7th, the main contract LC2505 of lithium carbonate futures closed at 71,060 yuan/ton, down 2.87% from the previous trading day. The average transaction price of battery - grade lithium carbonate in the spot market was down 1,300 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. - From March 28th, the weekly production of lithium carbonate was 17,318 tons, a 3.50% decrease from the previous week. As of March 14th, the weekly inventory of lithium carbonate was 127,910 tons, a 1.20% increase. The weekly production of lithium iron phosphate batteries was 14.48 GWh, a 6.94% increase [1]. - From March 1st - 31st, the retail sales of the new - energy vehicle market increased by 39% year - on - year and 44% month - on - month. The wholesale of new - energy vehicles by national passenger car manufacturers increased by 40% year - on - year and 36% month - on - month [1]. 3.2 Lithium Carbonate Price Monitoring | Indicator | April 3rd | April 7th | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Lithium carbonate main contract price (yuan/ton) | 73,160 | 71,060 | - 2,100 | - 2.87% | | Basis (yuan/ton) | 940 | 2,740 | 1,800 | - | | Main monthly spread (05 - 07) (yuan/ton) | - 300 | - 220 | 80 | - | | Cancellation monthly spread (07 - 08) (yuan/ton) | - 1,320 | - 1,060 | 260 | - | | Main contract positions (lots) | 199,448 | 179,831 | - 19,617 | - 9.84% | | Main contract trading volume (lots) | 81,717 | 154,107 | 72,390 | 88.59% | | Lithium carbonate futures warehouse receipts (sheets) | 24,603 | 27,023 | 2,420 | 9.84% | [3] 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - Spot market quotation: On April 7th, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 71,000 - 74,200 yuan/ton, with an average price of 72,600 yuan/ton, down 1,300 yuan/ton from the previous day [7]. - Downstream consumption situation: From March 1st - 31st, the retail sales of the national passenger car new - energy market were 988,000 vehicles, a 39% year - on - year increase and a 44% month - on - month increase. The cumulative retail sales this year were 2.414 million vehicles, a 37% year - on - year increase. The wholesale of national passenger car manufacturers was 1.13 million vehicles, a 40% year - on - year increase and a 36% month - on - month increase. The cumulative wholesale this year was 2.849 million vehicles, a 44% year - on - year increase [8]. - Industry news: - On March 26th, local time, US President Trump signed an executive order to impose a 25% tariff on all imported cars, effective April 2nd [9]. - On March 20th, Tianhua New Energy announced that its subsidiary obtained a mining license for a ceramic clay (lithium - containing) mine with an annual production scale of 9 million tons [10]. - On February 26th, South African mining giant Sibanye Stillwater terminated its lithium mine development project in Nevada, USA [10]. - China discovered a 2,800 - kilometer - long world - class spodumene - type lithium metallogenic belt, which is expected to increase China's lithium reserves from 6% to 16.5% of the global total [10]. - Keliyuan's Yichun lithium mine completed expansion and换证, with the mining and beneficiation scale increasing from 50,000 tons/year to 400,000 tons/year [11]. - Recently, relevant departments issued a notice to promote the use of new - energy vehicles in central and state - owned agencies [11]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts, including the main contract and basis of lithium carbonate futures, the prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, the monthly spreads of lithium carbonate futures main contracts, the prices of lithium concentrates, the prices of lithium hexafluorophosphate and electrolytes, etc. These charts visually display the price trends, production, inventory, and other data of lithium carbonate and related products in the industry [12][19][21]