冠通研究：原油：低开下行

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - Amid trade - war panic, the oil price has weakened and is mainly in a downward trend. The recommended strategy is to short at high prices. Attention should be paid to the US tariff policy and the US - Iran negotiation [1]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Trump signed an executive order to set a 10% "minimum benchmark tariff" on trading partners, with higher tariffs on some. The benchmark tariff took effect on April 5, and the reciprocal tariff on April 9. The EU and Canada will take counter - measures. China has also imposed a 34% tariff on US - originated imports. The market is worried that the escalating trade war will suppress oil demand. OPEC+ will increase production by 411,000 barrels starting from May, and the US may have direct talks with Iran [1]. Futures and Spot Market - Today, the main crude oil futures contract 2505 fell 6.18% to 478.6 yuan/ton, with a low of 473.2 yuan/ton and a high of 494.3 yuan/ton. The open interest decreased by 3021 to 19,593 lots [2]. Fundamental Tracking - EIA has adjusted the 2025 global crude oil demand growth rate down by 30,000 barrels per day to 1.27 million barrels per day, and the 2026 growth rate up by 70,000 barrels per day to 1.17 million barrels per day. It also raised the 2025 US crude oil production growth rate by 10,000 barrels per day to 390,000 barrels per day. OPEC kept its 2025 and 2026 global crude oil demand growth rate forecasts unchanged. IEA cut the 2025 global demand growth rate by 70,000 barrels per day to 1.1 million barrels per day and increased the 2025 global surplus by 150,000 barrels per day to 600,000 barrels per day [3]. - On the evening of April 2, EIA data showed that US crude oil inventories for the week ending March 28 increased by 6.165 million barrels, far exceeding the expected decrease of 2.116 million barrels. Gasoline inventories decreased by 1.551 million barrels, refined oil inventories increased by 264,000 barrels, and heating oil inventories increased by 209,000 barrels. Cushing crude oil inventories increased by 2.373 million barrels [3]. Supply and Demand - OPEC's January crude oil production was revised up by 28,000 barrels per day to 26.706 million barrels per day, and its February 2025 production increased by 154,000 barrels per day to 26.86 million barrels per day, driven by production increases in Iran and Nigeria. US crude oil production in the week ending March 28 increased by 6,000 barrels per day to 13.58 million barrels per day, slightly recovering from the record high [4]. - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products decreased to 20.094 million barrels per day, a 0.86% decrease from the same period last year. Gasoline weekly demand decreased by 1.71% to 8.495 million barrels per day, and the four - week average demand decreased by 1.86% from the same period last year. Diesel weekly demand increased by 1.18% to 3.679 million barrels per day, and the four - week average demand increased by 3.67% from the same period last year [4]. - The weekly supply of US crude oil products increased by 4.59% month - on - month [6].