沥青策略：逢高做空

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The strategy is to short on rallies. The asphalt market is mainly in a downward oscillation. Given the tight raw materials, the asphalt crack spread is expected to strengthen [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The asphalt production rate decreased by 1.0 percentage points week-on-week to 25.7%, 0.8 percentage points lower than the same period last year, close to the lowest level in recent years. The expected production in March is 2.386 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 278,000 tons or 13.2%. The downstream industries resumed work, but the road asphalt start - up rate remained flat at 19%, recovering slowly. The government plans to allocate 4.4 trillion yuan in local government special bonds, an increase of 500 billion yuan from the previous year. The national shipment volume increased by 0.87% week - on - week to 244,000 tons but remained low. The refinery inventory - to - stock ratio decreased for two consecutive weeks and was at the lowest level in recent years. Due to the cold air, the actual demand still needs to recover. U.S. policies on Venezuela, Russia, and Iran affected crude oil procurement, causing the asphalt price to first rebound and then decline due to concerns about the global economy [1]. Futures and Spot Market - The asphalt futures contract 2506 fell 1.63% to 3,321 yuan/ton, below the 5 - day moving average. The lowest price was 3,300 yuan/ton, and the highest was 3,374 yuan/ton. The open interest decreased by 20,579 to 186,284 lots [2]. Basis - The mainstream market price in Shandong dropped to 3,500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 06 contract rose to 179 yuan/ton, reaching a relatively high level [5]. Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, some refineries switched to producing residual oil, and the asphalt production rate decreased by 1.0 percentage points week - on - week to 25.7%, 0.8 percentage points lower than the same period last year. From January to February, the national highway construction investment decreased by 7.2% year - on - year, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate rebounded slightly compared with the whole year of 2024 but remained negative. From January to February 2025, the fixed - asset investment in road transportation decreased by 3.2% year - on - year, a decline compared with - 1.1% from January to December 2025. The fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) increased by 5.6% year - on - year from January to February 2025, an increase compared with 4.4% from January to December 2025. As of the week of April 4, the downstream industries resumed work, but the road asphalt start - up rate remained flat at 19%. The government proposed a more active fiscal policy, with a higher deficit rate, larger deficit and debt scales [6]. Inventory - As of the week of April 4, the asphalt refinery inventory - to - stock ratio decreased by 1.3 percentage points week - on - week to 18.9%, falling for two consecutive weeks and remaining at the lowest level in recent years [7][8]