棕榈油日报-20250408

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, due to the Sino - US tariff conflict having a significant impact on the market, and under the stimulation of news, the current market sentiment is weak. The futures price of palm oil may show a weak bottom - oscillating trend [11]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On April 7, affected by the intensification of tariff conflicts, BMD Malaysian palm oil closed at 4,182 ringgit/ton, down 3.4%, hitting a two - and - a - half - month low. The continuous palm P2505 contract gapped down on the first trading day after the holiday, closing at 8,740 yuan/ton, down 5.39% from the settlement price, with a trading volume of 911,100 lots and an open interest of 291,100 lots. The P2509 contract closed at 8,144 yuan/ton, the 05 - 09 spread was 596 yuan/ton, the soybean - palm main contract spread was - 1,088 yuan/ton, and the rapeseed - palm main contract spread was 509 yuan/ton [3]. - On April 7, the spot prices of palm oil at various ports were 9,330 - 9,480 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan/ton compared with the previous day. The import profit was - 743.12 yuan/ton, the basis weakened to - 11 yuan/ton, and the soybean - palm spot spread was - 1,360.26 yuan/ton [5]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - Market survey data shows that the estimated production of Malaysian palm oil in March was 1.31 million tons, a 10.3% increase from February, and the inventory may increase to 1.56 million tons, a 3% increase from February. Attention should be paid to the March supply - demand data released by MPOB this Wednesday. According to SPPOMA data, due to the reduction of labor during the Eid al - Fitr, the production of Malaysian palm oil in the first five days of April decreased by 35.47% month - on - month. Recently, the US tariff system has intensified, imposing an additional 24% and 32% tariffs on palm oil products from Malaysia and Indonesia respectively on the basis of 10%. Since the US imports less palm oil, this move may lead to more domestic soybean oil consumption. After the Ramadan in the production areas, palm oil enters the actual production - increasing period, and the inventory may gradually accumulate. Considering the recent decline in crude oil dragging down the biodiesel blending policy, the palm oil price is under pressure [9]. - According to Mysteel data, as of April 4, the total inventory of the three major domestic oils was 1.9216 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.22% (63,900 tons), among which the palm oil inventory was 373,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.27% (4,700 tons). The domestic palm oil has a rigid demand for transactions, with a low inventory, and there is a need for replenishment in the later period [9]. 3.3 Outlook for the Future - Currently, domestic palm oil is mainly for rigid procurement. In the short - term, the Sino - US tariff conflict has a great impact on the market. The price of the P2505 contract on the futures market gapped down, breaking below the 60 - day moving average, showing a weak price trend. In the short - term, under the stimulation of news, the current market sentiment is weak, and the futures price of palm oil may show a weak bottom - oscillating trend [11].