原油燃料油日报：特朗普欲再向中国加征50%关税，油价难言乐观-20250408

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - In the short term, major negative news such as the implementation of the US "reciprocal tariff", China's strong response, and OPEC+'s unexpected production increase have severely hit the international capital market, leading to a rare capital selling spree and panic in the market. There are no signs of improvement in market sentiment, and there is a possibility of further decline in risk assets [4]. - In the long - term, although the fundamentals of crude oil remain in a pattern of loose supply and demand, the current sharp decline seems too rapid [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Daily Market Summary - Trump plans to impose an additional 50% tariff on China if China does not withdraw its 34% tariff by April 8, 2025. China's Ministry of Commerce has strongly responded, stating that it will take counter - measures if the US persists [2]. - On April 7, the SC main contract on the domestic market hit the daily limit down by 7.02%, closing at 510.1 yuan/barrel, and closed at 477.4 yuan/barrel at night. On the international market, WTI closed down 1.03 dollars/barrel at 60.96 dollars/barrel, and Brent closed down 1.22 dollars/barrel at 64.36 dollars/barrel [2]. - The market is trading around Trump's tariff policy. A false news of a 90 - day tariff suspension led to a sharp rebound in the stock market and oil prices, but they later gave up most of the gains. The EU has proposed a "zero - tariff" agreement and announced phased counter - measures. Geopolitically, the Houthi attack on US warships and the US retaliatory air - strike on Yemen did not improve market sentiment [3]. - On the supply side, OPEC+ will increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in May, three times the expected monthly increase, accelerating the decline in oil prices. On the demand side, the global trade war risk has weakened the expected demand for crude oil. The US commercial crude oil inventory increased by 6.165 million barrels in the week ending March 28 [3]. 3.2. Fuel Oil - On April 7, FU closed at 3057 yuan/ton, LU at 3497 yuan/ton, and NYMEX fuel oil at 207.6 cents/gallon. Fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil are dragged down by the cost side. The supply of Russian and Iranian fuel oil is restricted by international trade, but if the geopolitical situation changes, the export channels may reopen. The high - sulfur variety has strong support, but its upward space is restricted. The low - sulfur variety is not significantly pressured due to the release of refining capacity in China [5]. 3.3. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring Crude Oil - From April 3 to April 7, 2025, most crude oil futures and spot prices declined. For example, SC futures price dropped by 5.89%, WTI by 8.51%, and Brent by 7.81%. Some spot prices like Oman and Dubai dropped by about 14%. Price spreads such as SC - Brent, SC - WTI, and Brent - WTI increased. The US dollar index rose by 1.48%, while the S&P 500 and DAX index declined. The US commercial crude oil inventory increased by 1.42% from March 21 to March 28 [7]. Fuel Oil - From April 3 to April 7, 2025, fuel oil futures and spot prices mostly declined. For example, FU futures price dropped by 7.14%, LU by 6.27%, and NYMEX fuel oil by 4.80%. Some spot prices such as IFO380 in Singapore and Rotterdam also decreased. The inventory of Singapore fuel oil decreased by 2.47% from March 21 to March 28 [9]. 3.4. Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation Inner - market Price - On April 7, the SC main contract hit the daily limit down by 7.02%, closing at 510.1 yuan/barrel, and closed at 477.4 yuan/barrel at night. The spot price of Shengli crude oil decreased by 12.81% to 59.88 dollars/barrel [10]. Outer - market Price - On April 7, WTI closed down 1.03 dollars/barrel at 60.96 dollars/barrel, and Brent closed down 1.22 dollars/barrel at 64.36 dollars/barrel. The spot price of Brent crude oil decreased by 8.24% to 66.67 dollars/barrel, and other global crude oil spot prices dropped by about 14% [11]. Macro - aspect - The market is trading around Trump's tariff policy. A false news of tariff suspension led to a short - term rebound in the stock market and oil prices. The trade war is intensifying, with the EU proposing a "zero - tariff" agreement and counter - measures. Trump's tariff policy may lead to a tariff rate of nearly 104% between China and the US [12]. Supply - OPEC+ will increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in May, three times the expected increase, accelerating the decline in oil prices. A Russian court's ruling may prevent a decline in Kazakhstan's oil exports [14]. Demand - If China's counter - measures are implemented, it may stop importing crude oil from the US. In 2024, China imported 9.63 million tons of crude oil from the US, accounting for about 1.7% of its total imports. Tariffs have limited impact on China's overall crude oil imports but may affect trade flows [15]. Inventory - In the week ending March 28, the US EIA commercial crude oil inventory increased by 6.165 million barrels, strategic crude oil inventory increased by 285,000 barrels, oil production increased by 6,000 barrels per day to 13.58 million barrels per day, refinery operating rate decreased by 1% to 86%, gasoline inventory decreased by 1.551 million barrels, heating oil inventory increased by 209,000 barrels, and refined oil inventory increased by 264,000 barrels [16]. Market Information - US Energy Secretary Wright will visit the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar. Trump said the US will have direct negotiations with Iran, and indirect high - level talks will be held in Oman on April 12. Trump is not satisfied with Russia's attacks on Ukraine and demands fair and reciprocal trade with the EU [17]. 3.5. Industrial Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts, including the prices and spreads of WTI and Brent contracts, US crude oil production, OPEC crude oil production, oil rig numbers in different regions, refinery operating rates, and fuel oil prices and inventories, which visually show the historical trends and current situations of relevant data [18][21][23]