贸易战引发成本坍塌、出口冲击，聚酯产业链难脱离负反馈

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Trump's tariff policy leads to a sharp decline in international oil prices, and the possibility of trade - war escalation due to tariff issues will continue to impact the commodity market. The overall valuation of PX and PTA has declined, and the negative feedback in the industrial chain may continue to play a role. The short - term industry situation of polyester is severe, and it is necessary to pay attention to the internal structural opportunities in the industrial chain and the tariff negotiation trends of various countries [2][3][4] Group 3: Summary of Each Section in the Report 1. Daily Market Summary PX & PTA - PX main contract PX2505 closed at 6392 yuan/ton, down 5.89% from the previous trading day, with a basis of 71 yuan/ton. PTA main contract PTA2505 closed at 4550 yuan/ton, down 5.25% from the previous trading day, with a basis of 0 yuan/ton [1] - Cost - end: Trump's tariff policy led to a sharp decline in international oil prices. WTI crude oil main contract closed at 60.96 dollars/barrel, and Brent oil closed at 64.36 dollars/barrel. Supply - end: Multiple PX and PTA plants have maintenance plans, with PX domestic device operating rate at 77.8% and Asian operating rate at 72.5%, and PTA operating rate around 86.1%. Polyester operating rate is around 93.2%. Demand - end: The total transaction volume of Light Textile City is 750 million meters, and the 15 - day average transaction is 863.87 million meters [2] Polyester - The short - fiber main contract PF2505 closed at 6154 yuan/ton, down 5.06% from the previous trading day. The mainstream price in the East China market is 6560 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a basis of 306 yuan/ton. Some short - fiber production capacities have reduction plans, and the supply - end pressure is expected to be greatly reduced. The restart of bottle - chip maintenance devices has increased the operating rate by 2.88% to 75.26%, and the supply - end is under pressure [4] 2. Industrial Chain Data Monitoring - The prices of PX, PTA, and short - fiber futures and some spot prices have declined to varying degrees, and there are also corresponding changes in trading volume, open interest, basis, and other indicators. The prices of some products in the industrial chain such as Brent oil, US crude oil, and ethylene glycol have also changed, and the processing spreads of some products have increased significantly [6][7] 3. Industrial Dynamics Macro Dynamics - The US consumer confidence index dropped to the lowest in more than four years in March. China has launched a series of counter - measures against the US "reciprocal tariff" policy, including imposing a 34% tariff on all US products and implementing export controls on some rare earths [9] Industry Dynamics - Toray announced that it will stop producing PTA in Japan in 2026 and will turn to external procurement [10] 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides multiple charts related to the industrial chain, including PX and PTA futures and basis, spot prices, operating rates, monthly spreads, processing fees, production benefits, load rates, trading volume, and inventory days [12][14][15]