有色金属周报（工业硅、多晶硅）：关税影响较小，硅系价格波动以基本面为导向-20250408

Report Information - Report Title: Non-ferrous Metals Weekly Report (Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon) [1] - Report Date: April 8, 2025 [1] - Research Institute: Hongyuan Futures Research Institute [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - For industrial silicon, the supply side has contracted recently, but the demand side is also weak, with limited purchases. The silicon price remains weak, and it is expected to maintain a low - level consolidation in the short term, ranging from 9,500 - 10,500 yuan/ton. For polysilicon, due to macro - sentiment disturbances, the price has corrected, but the tariff factor has little impact. There is still room for inventory reduction during the rush - installation period, with short - term price support. The 2506 contract is recommended for long - position allocation on dips, and the 2511 contract can be short - position allocated in the long term [2] Summary by Directory 1. Industry Chain Price Review - Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Price Trends: From March 28 to April 3, the industrial silicon futures main - contract closing price decreased by 0.36%, while the polysilicon futures main - contract closing price remained unchanged. Among different grades of industrial silicon, the price of 421 in Tianjin Port decreased by 0.45%. Some organic silicon products' prices declined, such as DMC by 2.75%, 107 glue by 1.37%, and silicone oil by 2.49%. Some silicon wafer prices increased, like N - type 210mm by 1.94%, N - type 210R by 6.99%, and N - type 183mm by 5.79% [9] - Industrial Silicon Price Trends: The price of industrial silicon has been in a low - level consolidation state. The average price of non - oxygen - blown 553 industrial silicon in the East China region has shown little change [10] 2. Industrial Silicon Supply and Cost Analysis - Cost Factors: During the dry season, the electricity price in the southwest region is at a high level, increasing the production cost of silicon enterprises. The price of silicon stone has been weakly stable, with little improvement in procurement. The electrode price has been slightly adjusted upwards, with the graphite electrode price increasing by 450 yuan/ton compared to the previous period. The price of silicon coal has been generally stable with minor fluctuations, and the price of petroleum coke has remained stable [22][31][38] - Profit Situation: In February, the average profit of national industrial silicon 553 was - 1,445 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 188 yuan/ton, and the average profit of 421 was - 2,029 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 116 yuan/ton [43] - Production and Supply: In the week of April 3, the number of open furnaces of silicon enterprises decreased, with the weekly open - furnace rate at 28.44%. The production in the north decreased, especially in Xinjiang where the number of open furnaces decreased by 9, and the production in the south increased slightly, such as in Yunnan and Sichuan [44] - Market Transaction Price: The market is weak, and the transaction prices of some grades of industrial silicon have declined [63] 3. Polysilicon Market Analysis - Production and Inventory: In March, the polysilicon output was 9.61 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.6 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 7.49 million tons. As of April 6, the polysilicon inventory was 23.6 million tons, a month - on - month decline. In April, some silicon material factories planned to increase production capacity, but the overall increase was limited [76] - Price and Market Outlook: The supply and demand of silicon materials are balanced, and the price is running smoothly. The silicon wafer production is lower than expected, but the price has rebounded. The demand for battery cells is steadily released, and the price remains stable. The distributed rush - installation of components is coming to an end, and the price increase is weak [77][80][82] 4. Organic Silicon Market Analysis - Production and Supply: In March, the Chinese DMC start - up rate was 63.69%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.94 percentage points, and the output was 18.79 million tons, a month - on - month decline. Most manufacturers maintained reduced - load production, and the subsequent start - up load may be further reduced by 5% [99] - Price Trend: The price increase of organic silicon has slowed down. As of April 3, the average price of DMC was 14,150 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 2.75%; the average price of 107 glue was 14,400 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.37%; and the average price of silicone oil was 15,650 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 2.49% [105] 5. Aluminum Alloy Market Analysis - Production Start - up: In the week of April 3, the start - up rate of primary aluminum alloy was 55.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.6 percentage points, and the start - up rate of recycled aluminum alloy was 56.38%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.5 percentage points [114] - Price Trend: The price of aluminum alloy has declined. As of April 3, the average price of ADC12 was 21,000 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous period, and the average price of A356 was 21,000 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.24% [117] 6. Inventory Analysis - Inventory Scale: As of April 3, the social inventory of industrial silicon (social inventory + delivery warehouse) was 60.8 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.4 million tons; the total factory inventory of Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan was 26.68 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.02 million tons. The registered warehouse receipts of the exchange were 70,468 lots, equivalent to 35.23 million tons of physical goods [129] - Supply - Demand Balance Table: The report provides the monthly supply - demand balance table of industrial silicon from February 2023 to March 2024, showing the changes in production, import, export, consumption, and inventory during this period [130]