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北方华创(002371):业绩持续增长,平台型半导体设备龙头优势显著

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [5][13]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 29.838 billion RMB for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 35.14%, and a net profit of 5.693 billion RMB, up 46.01% year-on-year [3][5]. - For Q1 2025, the company anticipates revenue between 7.340 billion and 8.980 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 23.35% to 50.91%, and a net profit between 1.420 billion and 1.740 billion RMB, reflecting a growth of 24.69% to 52.79% [3]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the domestic semiconductor equipment market, with expectations of increased market share due to the ongoing trend of domestic substitution [4]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 29.838 billion RMB, a 35.14% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 5.693 billion RMB, up 46.01% year-on-year [3][10]. - The Q1 2025 forecast indicates revenue of 7.340 to 8.980 billion RMB, with a growth rate of 23.35% to 50.91%, and a net profit of 1.420 to 1.740 billion RMB, reflecting a growth of 24.69% to 52.79% [3]. Operational Analysis - The company is expected to continue increasing its market share due to the domestic substitution trend accelerated by new U.S. regulations on semiconductor equipment [4]. - As a leading domestic semiconductor equipment manufacturer, the company is well-positioned to benefit from the expansion plans of domestic storage manufacturers and advanced process technology [4]. - The company has successfully developed new products, enhancing its product matrix and solidifying its position as an industry leader [4]. Profit Forecast, Valuation, and Rating - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 29.838 billion, 38.836 billion, and 46.902 billion RMB, with year-on-year growth rates of 35.1%, 30.2%, and 20.8% respectively [5]. - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 5.693 billion, 7.668 billion, and 9.809 billion RMB, with growth rates of 46.0%, 34.7%, and 27.9% respectively [5]. - The expected EPS for 2024-2026 is 10.7, 14.3, and 18.4 RMB, with corresponding P/E ratios of 24, 18, and 14 [5].