建材行业更新：建材行业基本面确定性优势凸显

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the building materials industry [4] Core Viewpoints - The external environment is expected to positively influence the fundamentals of the building materials sector, with a focus on the keyword for 2025 being "tortoise and hare," indicating a gradual release of profits as supply optimization accumulates alongside stabilizing demand [3][4] - The building materials industry is primarily driven by domestic demand, which is expected to hedge against external environmental changes. Additionally, a decline in commodity prices, particularly oil, is anticipated to reduce raw material costs, benefiting the industry [4] Summary by Relevant Sections Cement - Cement is a pure domestic demand-driven commodity, with successful staggered price increases. The report predicts a high certainty of reduced pressure on cement demand this year, supported by key ongoing projects contributing to domestic demand [4] - The report highlights that the cement industry's demand resilience and structure have been tested, with coal price reductions providing opportunities for profit improvement. Earnings recovery is expected as early as Q1 2025 [4] - Recommended stocks include Conch Cement, Huaxin Cement, TPI Cement, China Resources Cement Technology, Shangfeng Cement, and Jinju Group [4][5] Consumer Building Materials - The main focus for consumer building materials is profit margin recovery, aided by expected declines in raw material prices due to OPEC+ production increases [4] - The report suggests that the biggest highlight for 2025 will not be price growth but rather the elasticity of net profit margin recovery, with expectations of a more cautious approach to revenue growth and cost management [4] - Recommended stocks include Oriental Yuhong, Beixin Building Materials, Weixing New Materials, Sankeshu, Rabbit Baby, China Liansu, Keshun Shares, Dongpeng Holdings, and Mona Lisa [4][5] Fiberglass - The fiberglass industry shows strong expectations for price pass-through capabilities despite concerns over tariff impacts. Major companies like China Jushi have established production capacities in key overseas markets, mitigating potential negative effects [4] - The report indicates that the industry's major players have a high willingness and ability to increase prices, with strong certainty of profit recovery [4] - Recommended stocks include China Jushi and China National Materials [4][5]