AKESO(09926) 海通国际·2025-04-08 12:23Investment Rating - The report maintains an "OUTPERFORM" rating for the company [2][11]. Core Insights - The company's core product sales are strong, with commercial sales revenue reaching RMB 2.00 billion, a 24.9% increase, while total revenue for 2024 was RMB 2.13 billion, reflecting a 53.1% decline primarily due to reduced licensing revenue [3][16]. - The company has effectively managed costs, resulting in a significant reduction in expense ratios across the board, with R&D expenses decreasing by 5.3% due to the transition of some outsourced clinical research services to in-house execution [4][18]. - The clinical pipeline is advancing steadily, with key programs such as Cadonilimab and Ivonescimab making progress in various trials, including those for hepatocellular carcinoma and non-small cell lung cancer [5][19][20]. Financial Performance - The company reported a net loss of RMB 501 million for 2024, but the operating net loss narrowed by 16.7% year-over-year to RMB 660 million [3][16]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are set at RMB 3.41 billion, RMB 5.45 billion, and RMB 7.31 billion, respectively, with expected year-over-year growth rates of 60% and 34% in the following years [11][34]. - The company is expected to turn a profit in 2025, achieving a net profit of RMB 50 million [11][34]. Clinical Pipeline - Cadonilimab is involved in multiple clinical trials, including adjuvant treatment for hepatocellular carcinoma and combination therapies for non-small cell lung cancer [5][19]. - Ivonescimab is also progressing in various trials, including those for biliary tract cancer and head and neck squamous cell carcinoma [20][23]. - The company is expanding into antibody-drug conjugates (ADCs) with several candidates entering clinical or IND application stages [10][30][31]. Valuation and Target Price - The target price has been adjusted to HKD 96.6 per share, based on a DCF model with a WACC of 10.0% and a perpetual growth rate of 3.0% [11][34].