软商品日报-20250408

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bearish bias with potential for decline but limited trading opportunities on the market) [1] - Pulp: ★☆★ (Unclear from the given star description) [1] - Sugar: ☆☆☆ (White star, suggesting a short - term balance between bullish and bearish trends with poor trading opportunities, recommend to wait and see) [1] - Apple: ★☆★ (Unclear from the given star description) [1] - Logs: Not clearly rated by stars [1] - Natural Rubber: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bearish bias with potential for decline but limited trading opportunities on the market) [1] - 20 - number Rubber: ★★☆ (Two stars, indicating a clear bearish trend and the market is reacting) [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bearish bias with potential for decline but limited trading opportunities on the market) [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall market is affected by factors such as global trade conflicts, climate, and production - consumption relationships. Different commodities show different trends and investment suggestions, mainly suggesting waiting and seeing for most commodities [2][3][5][6][7] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton continued to decline sharply due to China's counter - tariffs on the US and Trump's threat to impose additional 50% tariffs on China. The short - term macro - risk is the main market factor [2] - Domestic cotton spot trading is okay, but the cotton yarn market has few transactions, and the yarn price has dropped by 200 - 300. China's procurement of US cotton in 24/25 has been cautious, and future procurement is basically stagnant [2] - Due to domestic cotton production and high yields in Brazil and Australia, China's dependence on US cotton in 24/25 is low, and the tariff on US cotton has little impact on domestic supply [2] - Global trade conflicts will have a huge impact on future cotton demand, and China's cotton demand may be negatively affected. The short - term trend of Zhengzhou cotton may remain weak, and it is recommended to wait and see [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. The continuous decline of crude oil is negative for US sugar. In the 25/26 season, Brazil's sugarcane yield per unit may decline due to less rainfall in the first quarter, which is positive for US sugar. However, the high sugar - alcohol ratio may keep the sugar - making ratio high, and Brazil's sugar production may still be high [3] - Zhengzhou sugar followed the correction of commodities. Although Guangxi has increased production this year, the inventory has decreased year - on - year due to the fast sales rhythm, and the spot pressure is relatively light [3] - Domestic sugar sales are good this year, and the imports of sugar and syrup have decreased significantly, which is positive for Zhengzhou sugar. However, the downward trend of US sugar and sufficient domestic supply limit the upward space of Zhengzhou sugar. It is recommended to wait and see [3] Apple - The futures price fluctuated. In the Shandong production area, the number of merchants increased, the trading volume of first - and second - grade apples increased, and the price of flaky red apples rose. In the northwest production area, the remaining supply is limited, and the merchants mainly pack and ship their own goods [4] - The arrival at the wholesale market increased, and the overall trading was stable. The cold - storage destocking progress is fast this year, and the apple inventory is lower than the same period. With the approaching of May Day, the demand for apples enters the peak season, and the spot price still has room to rise [4] 20 - number Rubber, Natural Rubber, and Synthetic Rubber - Affected by the trade war, RU, NR, and BR continued to plummet. The price of domestic natural rubber decreased, the price of butadiene rubber decreased slightly, and the import price of foreign butadiene was stable. The price of raw materials in Thailand dropped sharply [5] - The global natural rubber supply has entered the growth period, and the Yunnan production area in China has entered the trial - tapping period. The operating rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants decreased last week, and some plants are under maintenance [5] - The domestic tire operating rate continued to decline last week, the terminal market sales were poor, and the inventory pressure of finished products still exists. The total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased to 62.07 tons this week. The market is driven by trade policies, and the fundamentals are weak. It is recommended to be bearish and hold cross - variety arbitrage [5] Pulp - Pulp rebounded slightly today, but the overall commodity market is still suffering. The subsequent imports from the US may decrease significantly. As of April 3, 2025, the mainstream import sample inventory of Chinese pulp was 202.2 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.9 tons and 0.4% [6] - The port inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period, the pulp liquidity is still relatively loose, the external price is relatively firm, the demand is generally average, and the fundamentals are generally weak. It is recommended to wait and see [6] Logs - The futures price is running weakly. The spot price remains stable. Although the external price has been adjusted down, it will take time to affect the shipping volume. It is expected that the arrival volume of New Zealand logs in April will still be high [7] - The port delivery volume increased month - on - month, but the total volume is still low, and the peak - season demand is lower than expected. The port log inventory has decreased, but due to weak demand, there is still some inventory pressure. It is expected that the futures price will run weakly, and it is recommended to wait and see [7]