冠通每日交易策略-20250408

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The PVC market is under short - term pressure due to factors such as low downstream enthusiasm, high inventory, and potential US tariff policies [3]. - Crude oil prices are weakening and mainly moving downward in a volatile manner, affected by trade war concerns, OPEC+ production increase, and potential US - Iran negotiations [4]. - The domestic futures market on April 8, 2025, saw more contracts decline than rise. The market is influenced by trade policies and other factors [6]. - Copper prices are currently affected by US tariff policies and market uncertainty, with short - term volatility and a long - term resilient fundamental outlook [10]. - The asphalt market is turning weak and mainly moving downward in a volatile manner, but the asphalt cracking spread is expected to strengthen due to raw material shortages [12]. - PP and plastic are expected to move downward in a volatile manner, and it is recommended to go long on PP and short on LL [13][15]. - Iron ore has short - term support but limited upward momentum, and a 5 - 9 positive spread strategy is still valid [16]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coils are expected to move weakly in a low - level range, and key price levels should be monitored [18]. - Coking coal is expected to move weakly in a low - level range in the short term [19]. - Urea is mainly moving weakly in a volatile manner, with the main contract oscillating in the range of 1780 - 1900 yuan/ton [21]. Summary by Variety PVC - Supply: The PVC开工率 decreased by 0.02 percentage points to 79.81%, and there are new minor maintenance devices [3]. - Demand: Downstream开工率 slightly declined, and the replenishment enthusiasm and forward orders are poor. The Indian anti - dumping policy and potential US tariffs affect exports [3]. - Inventory: Social inventory has been decreasing for four weeks but remains high [3]. Crude Oil - Policy: Trump's tariff policies and potential retaliatory measures from other countries have increased market panic [4]. - Supply: OPEC+ will increase production by 411,000 barrels per day starting in May [4]. - Demand: The market is worried that the intensifying trade war will suppress oil demand [4]. Copper - Supply: Domestic copper supply is expected to decrease in the second quarter, affected by factors such as smelter production enthusiasm and scrap copper imports [10]. - Demand: The downstream copper demand is strong, with an increase in the开工 rate of copper foil enterprises [10]. - Market: The short - term market is mainly influenced by US tariff policies, with high market uncertainty [10]. Asphalt - Supply: The asphalt开工率 decreased to 25.7%, and the planned production in March increased by 13.2% [11]. - Demand: The downstream开工率 is slowly recovering, and the overall demand is still low [11]. - Market: Affected by trade policies and potential US - Iran negotiations, the market is turning weak [12]. PP - Supply: The PP企业开工率 rose to about 86%, and the production ratio of standard - grade drawn wire decreased [13]. - Demand: The downstream开工率 is at a low level, and US tariffs affect exports [13]. - Inventory: Petrochemical inventory is at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years [13]. Plastic - Supply: The plastic开工率 decreased to about 88%, and new production capacity has been put into operation [15]. - Demand: The PE下游开工率 is at a low level, and the agricultural film peak season is coming to an end [15]. - Inventory: Petrochemical inventory is at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years [15]. Iron Ore - Supply: No significant changes in the short - term supply situation are mentioned [16]. - Demand: The export demand for finished steel is expected to be weak, which may suppress iron ore demand [16]. - Market: The price is affected by trade policies and steel production restrictions [16]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - Supply: No significant changes in the short - term supply situation are mentioned [18]. - Demand: The demand for rebar is slowly recovering, and the export demand for hot - rolled coils is expected to weaken [18]. - Market: The market is affected by trade conflicts and steel production reduction news [18]. Coking Coal - Supply: Domestic mines are resuming production, and imported coal resources are abundant [19]. - Demand: The demand from steel and coking enterprises is increasing, but the demand elasticity is low [19]. - Market: The price is affected by macro risks and steel production reduction news [19]. Urea - Supply: It is in the spring maintenance period, with some factories having maintenance plans [20]. - Demand: The downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the next round of concentrated fertilizer preparation is around June [20]. - Inventory: The inventory is being smoothly reduced, which provides support for the market [21].