宏观专题研究：如何看美国当前的债务现状？

Group 1: Current Debt Situation - As of FY2024, the total U.S. government debt exceeds $38 trillion, primarily driven by federal government debt[3] - Federal government debt reached $35.5 trillion, while state and local debts are $1 trillion and $2 trillion respectively[3] - From FY2019 to FY2024, federal government debt increased by 56.4%, while state and local debts changed by -11.1% and 2% respectively[3] Group 2: Debt-to-GDP Ratios - By FY2024, the U.S. government debt-to-GDP ratio surpassed 130%, with federal government debt-to-GDP exceeding 120%[4] - The federal debt reached $35.5 trillion, exceeding the FY2024 GDP of $28.8 trillion, resulting in a debt-to-GDP ratio of 123%[4] - The combined government debt-to-GDP ratio is approximately 134%[4] Group 3: Debt Growth Rate - The current growth rate of U.S. government debt is about $2.3 trillion per fiscal year, with projections indicating total debt will exceed $40 trillion in FY2025[5] - Federal debt is expected to surpass $37 trillion by FY2025, following annual increases of $2.5 trillion, $2.2 trillion, and $2.3 trillion in the previous three fiscal years[5] Group 4: Interest Payments and Fiscal Pressure - In FY2024, interest payments on federal debt reached $1.13 trillion, doubling from $0.56 trillion in FY2021[10] - Net interest payments became the third-largest expenditure for the federal government, accounting for approximately 13.1% of total spending in FY2024[11] - The average interest rate on outstanding debt rose to 3.324% by FY2024, significantly increasing the cost of servicing the debt[10] Group 5: Public vs. Internal Debt Holdings - Publicly held debt surged by 116% from FY2015 to FY2024, reaching $28.3 trillion, while internal government-held debt decreased[9] - In FY2024, public debt accounted for 92% of total federal debt, reflecting a significant shift in debt ownership[9] Group 6: External Debt Holdings - Foreign investors held $8.5 trillion of U.S. Treasury securities by the end of FY2024, a decrease from 31.5% of federal debt in 2010 to 23.5%[9] - Major foreign holders include Japan, China, and the UK, with respective holdings of $1.0598 trillion, $0.759 trillion, and $0.7227 trillion[9]