央行坚定支持中央汇金公司加大力度增持股票市场指数基金

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The global market is significantly affected by the US tariff policy, leading to increased market volatility and risk aversion. US fiscal deficits are rising, and the stock and bond markets are experiencing a double - kill. The gold market has not yet stabilized, and the US dollar is in a state of shock. The US stock market remains under pressure, while the bond market still has upward potential. In the commodity market, most products are negatively affected by the tariff war, and prices are under pressure [12][16][20]. 3. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US fiscal deficit continues to increase. In the first half of the 2025 fiscal year, the federal budget deficit is expected to reach $1.3 trillion, with a $245 billion increase compared to the same period last fiscal year. Gold prices have risen but not stabilized, and there is still room for correction in the short term. It is recommended to wait before bottom - fishing [12][13]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Canada will impose a 25% tariff on US - made cars. The US insists on imposing tariffs, which has a negative impact on global risk appetite. The US dollar is expected to fluctuate in the short term [14][16][17]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US is discussing tariff agreements with other countries. The optimism of US small businesses has declined significantly. The US stock market adjustment is not over, and it is recommended to maintain a bearish view [20][21]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank supports Central Huijin to increase its holdings of stock market index funds. The upward trend of Treasury bond futures has not ended, and there are many opportunities to buy on dips. It is recommended to hold long positions or wait for opportunities to buy short - term bonds [22][23][24]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - China's "quasi - stabilization fund" has entered the market. The A - share market has received support, but the future trend depends on the US tariff policy and domestic policies. It is recommended to adopt a risk - avoidance strategy in the short term [25][27]. 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The USDA will release its monthly supply - demand report on April 10. The international market has changed little. The domestic soybean meal futures price is strong, but with a large amount of Brazilian soybeans arriving, the spot and basis of soybean meal will face pressure. It is expected that the soybean meal futures price will run strongly, and attention should be paid to the development of Sino - US relations [28][29]. 2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Indonesia plans to adjust the export tax on crude palm oil. The oil market sentiment has stabilized, but the rebound is limited. It is recommended to pay attention to the MPOB March report data. If the inventory accumulates as expected, the price may continue to fluctuate weakly [30]. 2.3 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - In March, the sales volume of excavators increased by 18.5% year - on - year. Steel prices continue to be weak, and it is recommended to operate with a light position and adopt a strategy of hedging on rebounds [31][33][34]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Pigs) - Wens Co., Ltd. plans to continue share repurchases. The livestock breeding sector has risen, but there are controversies. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies and positive arbitrage strategies for pigs [35][36]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - The US unilateral tariff increase disrupts the textile and clothing supply chain. The US cotton planting progress is behind schedule. The Sino - US trade war has a negative impact on the cotton market. It is not recommended to blindly bottom - fish, and it is advisable to operate with a light position [37][39]. 2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - Starch enterprises' losses have deepened, and some enterprises have reduced production. The CS05 - C05 spread is expected to remain stable at around the normal processing fee of 380 [40][41]. 2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn) - High temperature and low rainfall may lead to soil moisture deficiency in some areas. The impact of tariffs on traders' sentiment is short - lived. It is necessary to pay attention to the weather in wheat - growing areas [42][43]. 2.8 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The price of metallurgical coke in the Lvliang market is stable with a slight upward trend. The spot market of coking coal has improved, but the futures market still faces pressure. The coke spot may continue to rise in the short term, but the medium - term fundamentals are loose [44][45]. 2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Alumina) - Guinea is transforming from a price taker to a price setter. The price of alumina has fallen below the cash cost line of high - cost enterprises. It is recommended to wait and see [46][47]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - JinkoSolar has won a large project. The polysilicon market may be in a state of contradiction between the weakening fundamentals and uncertain warehouse receipts. It is recommended to consider both long - position opportunities in the PS2506 contract and short - position opportunities in the PS2511 contract [48][49][50]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - Some organic silicon monomer enterprises have reduced production. The supply of industrial silicon has decreased, but demand remains weak. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies and reverse arbitrage opportunities in the Si2511 - Si2512 contract [51][52]. 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Chile's lithium resources are estimated to be 28% more than before. Rio Tinto will restart lithium expansion in Argentina. The lithium market fundamentals are bearish. It is recommended to hold existing short positions and pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds [53][55]. 2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The net short - position of the top 20 futures companies in Shanghai nickel has decreased. The nickel market is affected by the trade war and fundamental factors. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and consider long - position opportunities at low levels after the macro - sentiment eases [56][58]. 2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME0 - 3 lead is at a discount. The lead market is affected by tariffs, but there are still strong fundamentals. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and consider long - position opportunities on dips [60][61]. 2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The zinc market is affected by the macro - environment and export pressure. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and consider short - selling opportunities on rebounds in the medium term [63]. 2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - US API crude oil inventories have decreased. Oil prices are under pressure due to the tariff war and uncertain OPEC+ policies. There is a significant downward risk in the short term [64][65]. 2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The CCER market is expected to have a strong upward trend this year, while the CEA price is under pressure. It is recommended that CEA be in a short - term weak shock [66][67]. 2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Urea) - India's urea import tender has received many offers. Urea prices are expected to be weak in the short term, and attention should be paid to agricultural demand in mid - to late April [68][69]. 2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - A styrene plant in East China has stopped for maintenance. The styrene - benzene spread is expected to widen in the short term but narrow in the long term [70][71]. 2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - Bottle chip factories have lowered their export prices. Bottle chip prices are expected to follow the cost side and remain in a low - level shock range [72][74]. 2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong has decreased. The market is affected by the macro - environment, and it is recommended to wait and see [75][76]. 2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp has decreased. The pulp market is dominated by the macro - environment, and it is recommended to wait and see [77]. 2.23 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The price of PVC powder has decreased. The PVC market is affected by the macro - environment, and it is recommended to wait and see [78]. 2.24 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash market is weakly stable. With the increase in supply, it is recommended to maintain a view of short - selling on rallies in the medium term [79]. 2.25 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in Hubei has increased. The price of float glass depends on the demand side. It is recommended to pay attention to long - position opportunities on large dips [80][81].