格林大华期货早盘提示-20250409

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a “long” rating for the global economy in the macro and financial sector [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The upward trend of the global economy remains unchanged despite the impact of trade policies. The substantial impact on the global economy is lower than the tariff figures due to domestic demand in the US and trade diversion. China will boost domestic consumption, Germany's fiscal expansion policy is passed, and the European manufacturing industry is improving. AI is at a stage of low - cost, large - scale application, and local deployment, which will enhance global productivity, and AI humanoid robots are expected to enter the mass - production era in 2025 [1] 3. Summary by Related Information Important Information - Market expects the probability of the ECB cutting interest rates on April 17 to rise from 70% to 90%, with two to three more cuts expected this year. Trump's tariff policy reignites deflation concerns in the eurozone [1] - The yield of 10 - year US Treasury bonds soars by 19 basis points, indicating that hedge funds are reducing leverage and investors are turning to cash to avoid market volatility [1] - Economists believe that inflation is the key issue, and the Fed will not intervene in the short term. It will wait for economic data to reflect the impact of tariffs, which may take months [1] - The US Chamber of Commerce is considering suing the Trump administration to block new tariffs effective on the 9th, representing millions of US businesses [1] - Trump rejects the EU's “zero - for - zero” tariff proposal on cars and industrial products and demands the EU buy $350 billion of US energy for tariff relief, which may benefit US LNG producers [1] - The US plans to raise the tariff rate on Canadian timber from 14.4% to 34.45%. The risk of a US recession is “significant,” and Trump's trade war is harming the US and global economies [1] - Larry Fink warns that the US economy is weakening, most CEOs think the US is in recession, the US stock market may fall 20%, and he questions the expectation of multiple interest - rate cuts this year, suggesting a possible Fed rate hike [1]