Report Industry Investment Ratings - PVC: Bearish allocation, with an overall cautious and bearish outlook, but potential support if domestic stimulus policies exceed expectations; otherwise, the market will face further pressure if trade frictions worsen and economic expectations deteriorate [2] - Caustic Soda: Cautiously bearish, with cautious downward movement in the market [3] - Rubber: Bearish, with a negative outlook especially before the substantial change in tariff impact [4] - Urea: Concerns about price corrections due to a bearish sentiment on commodities influenced by US tariff policies [6] - Methanol: Concerns about price corrections due to a bearish sentiment on commodities influenced by tariff policies [7] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of PVC, caustic soda, rubber, urea, and methanol, covering aspects such as price trends, supply - demand fundamentals, cost factors, and macro - economic impacts. It provides investment outlooks and key points to watch for each product [2][3][4] Grouped Summaries PVC - On April 8, the closing price of the PVC main 05 contract was 4,907 yuan/ton (-22), the Changzhou market price was 4,800 yuan/ton (0), and the main basis was - 107 yuan/ton (+22). Long - term demand is weak due to real - estate drag and export constraints, with high inventory and over - supply. The market is bearish, mainly following the broader market, and is affected by macro factors such as tariff wars, US recession expectations, and domestic stimulus policies [2] Caustic Soda - On April 8, the caustic soda main SH05 contract closed at 2,372 yuan/ton (-105). As of April 3, 2025, the inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises decreased by 2.99% week - on - week and increased by 12.07% year - on - year. The market is cautiously bearish, with attention on factors such as Weiqiao's delivery volume, inventory reduction, alumina production, and exports [3] Rubber - On April 8, the rubber sector declined significantly. The market is currently macro - driven, with weak overseas demand due to tariffs. The fundamentals are weak, with increasing expectations of tapping, loose port inventory, and weakening raw materials. The rubber sector is bearish before the tariff impact changes substantially [4] Urea - The urea main contract closed down 2.91% at 1,804 yuan/ton. The supply is abundant with a slight decrease in daily output, and the cost is stable. The demand from compound fertilizer enterprises decreased slightly, and industrial demand is stable. The inventory decreased, and there are concerns about price corrections due to US tariff policies [6] Methanol - The methanol main contract closed down 0.33% at 2,381 yuan/ton. The domestic supply is high, and the downstream methanol - to - olefins industry is stable. Both domestic and port inventories are decreasing. There are concerns about price corrections due to tariff policies [7]
能源化工日报-20250409
Chang Jiang Qi Huo·2025-04-09 01:30