铜：关税扰动加剧，价格弱势

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices are showing a weak trend due to intensified tariff disturbances [2]. - The trend strength of copper is -1, indicating a bearish outlook [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract yesterday was 73,360, with a daily decline of 0.38%, and the night - session closing price was 72,520, with a decline of 1.15%. The closing price of the LME Copper 3M electronic disk yesterday was 8,588, with a decline of 1.87%. The trading volume and positions of the Shanghai Copper main contract and LME Copper 3M electronic disk have changed compared with the previous day. The inventory of Shanghai Copper decreased by 8,056 to 108,768, and the inventory of LME Copper increased by 3,225 to 213,450. The cancellation warrant ratio of LME Copper was 43.52%, a decrease of 1.05% [2]. - Spot Data: The price of Shanghai 1 bright copper decreased by 500 to 67,800. The spot - to - futures near - month spread decreased by 30 to 120, and the near - month contract to the continuous - first contract spread increased by 200 to 130. The cross - period arbitrage cost of buying the near - month and selling the continuous - first contract was 208 [2]. Macro and Industry News - Macro News: Trump had a pleasant call with the Acting President of South Korea. The US Trade Representative stated that the president would not accept the situation where Wall Street dominates the economy, and there are no "exceptions and exemptions" for tariffs and no negotiation schedule. The US threatens to further impose a 50% tariff on China, and the Chinese Ministry of Commerce stated that if the US acts willfully, China will surely respond in kind [2]. - Micro News: Codelco in Chile produced 144 million tons of copper in 2024 and regained the title of the world's largest copper producer. Sumitomo Metal in Japan plans to produce 433,000 tons of refined copper in the 2025/26 fiscal year, a decrease of 2.6% compared with the previous year. In March, Chile's copper export volume was 182,338 tons, and the export volume of copper ore and concentrates was 1,304,782 tons. The exports to China were 33,496 tons and 810,135 tons respectively. Codelco's copper production increased in the first quarter, and the chairman is optimistic about the long - term demand prospects [2][4].