Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro Finance: Index futures are expected to fluctuate weakly, while treasury bonds are expected to fluctuate upward [1][5] - Black Building Materials: Rebar, iron ore are expected to fluctuate weakly, and coking coal and coke are expected to fluctuate [1][5][6] - Non - ferrous Metals: Copper is recommended to moderately layout long positions after the market panic is fully released; aluminum is recommended to strengthen observation; nickel is recommended to observe or short on rallies; tin is recommended for range - bound operations; gold is recommended to build long positions at low prices after sufficient price corrections; silver is recommended for range - bound operations [1][10][12][14] - Energy and Chemicals: PVC, caustic soda, rubber are expected to fluctuate weakly; urea and methanol are expected to fluctuate; soda ash is recommended to hold short positions in call options [1][19][20][21] - Cotton Textile Industry Chain: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to fluctuate weakly; apples are expected to fluctuate strongly; PTA is expected to fluctuate weakly [1][26][27][28] - Agriculture and Animal Husbandry: Pigs are expected to fluctuate weakly; eggs are strongly supported in the near - term and short on rallies in the far - term; corn is recommended to go long at low prices; soybean meal is weak in the near - term and strong in the far - term; oils are expected to fluctuate weakly [1][30][32][33] Core Views The report comprehensively analyzes the futures market trends of various industries. It is affected by multiple factors such as US tariff policies, supply - demand relationships, and market sentiment. Different industries and varieties show different trends and investment opportunities, and investors need to pay attention to policy changes, supply - demand dynamics, and market sentiment [5][10][19] Summary by Directory Macro Finance - Index Futures: In the short - term, it is under pressure. After the government introduces favorable policies, it may rebound. In the medium - term, if there are super - expected policies, the internal driving force will be enhanced; otherwise, it may still be under pressure [5] - Treasury Bonds: Since early April, the extreme risk - aversion sentiment has driven the yield to decline too fast. There is a need for adjustment. Considering the uncertainty of trade policies, the interest rate decline process may be repeated [5] Black Building Materials - Rebar: Affected by the tariff storm, the direct and indirect exports of steel will be impacted. In the short - term, the market sentiment is affected, and the actual demand is under pressure. It is expected to fluctuate weakly [6] - Iron Ore: The tariff negative impact has eased. The supply side is strong, and the iron - water growth rate is expected to slow down. It is recommended to observe around the US tariff and domestic policies [6] - Coking Coal and Coke: For coking coal, the supply pressure has recovered, and the demand is mainly rigid. For coke, the supply is increasing steadily, and the demand is improving marginally. Both are affected by the overall market and need to pay attention to terminal demand and inventory [7][8] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The US tariff war increases the probability of a global economic recession, causing copper prices to decline. However, the long - term demand logic remains, and the short - term fundamentals are still resilient [10] - Aluminum: The overall supply of the ore end is improving, and the demand of downstream processing enterprises is declining. There is a short - term downward risk, and it is recommended to strengthen observation [12] - Nickel: Affected by policies and supply - demand relationships, the nickel ore price has an upward expectation, but the refined nickel is in an oversupply pattern. It is recommended to observe or short on rallies [14][15] - Tin: The semiconductor industry is expected to recover, and the tin ore supply is tight. The price is expected to fluctuate greatly, and it is recommended to build long positions at low prices [16] - Gold and Silver: Affected by the US tariff policy, the market has a recession expectation, and the prices have corrected. However, the central bank's gold - buying demand and downstream industrial demand support the prices. It is recommended to build long positions at low prices after sufficient price corrections [17][18] Energy and Chemicals - PVC: The long - term demand is sluggish, the supply is under pressure, and the supply - demand pattern is loose. It is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is necessary to pay attention to macro policies and export and maintenance dynamics [19] - Caustic Soda: The profit is neutral, the inventory is high, and the market sentiment is poor. However, the export orders may improve. It is recommended to be cautiously bearish and pay attention to inventory and production capacity changes [21] - Rubber: It is mainly affected by the macro - environment. The overseas demand is weak, and the domestic supply is loose. It is recommended to be bearish before the tariff impact changes [21] - Urea: The supply is slightly reduced, the demand is stable, and the inventory is in the seasonal destocking stage. It is necessary to pay attention to the price correction risk caused by the US tariff policy [23][24] - Methanol: The supply is at a high level, the demand of the main downstream is stable, and the inventory is in the destocking stage. It is necessary to pay attention to the price correction risk caused by the tariff policy [24][25] - Soda Ash: The supply is increasing, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to hold short positions in call options [25] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and Cotton Yarn: The global cotton supply is expected to increase slightly, and the consumption is also expected to increase. The market consumption is not strong, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly [26] - Apples: The inventory is low, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly, but it is necessary to pay attention to macro risks [27] - PTA: The cost has collapsed due to external factors, and the terminal export orders are not good. Although the supply - demand is good and the inventory is decreasing, the price is not optimistic [28][29] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - Pigs: In the short - term, the price fluctuates around 14 yuan/kg. In the medium - to long - term, the supply is increasing, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to short on rallies [30][31][32] - Eggs: In the short - term, the supply pressure is large, but the supply growth rate is weakened. In the long - term, the supply will continue to increase. It is recommended to observe in the near - term and short on rallies in the far - term [32] - Corn: In the short - term, the spot price is easy to rise and difficult to fall. In the medium - to long - term, the supply - demand is tightening, but the upside space is limited. It is recommended to go long at low prices [33][34] - Soybean Meal: In the short - term, the 05 and 07 contracts are under pressure, and the 09 contract is expected to be strong. It is recommended to short on rallies for 05 and 07 and go long for 09 [34][35][36] - Oils: In the short - term, it is expected to fluctuate weakly. In the medium - to long - term, the supply of soybean oil and palm oil will increase, and the price may decline first and then rebound. It is recommended to observe and pay attention to spread trading [36][38][39]
期货市场交易指引-20250409
Chang Jiang Qi Huo·2025-04-09 02:04